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I’m no longer afraid of Bitcoin dropping. I start to be afraid of Bitcoin not going up.
Everyone talks about a crash.
But I keep thinking the most dangerous scenario for Michael Saylor’s Strategy could be... Bitcoin going sideways.
Not 3 months.
But 2–3 years.
Over the years, the Strategy machine has been running on a familiar loop:
➡️ Issue new shares or other financial instruments.
➡️ Raise capital.
➡️ Buy more Bitcoin.
➡️ The BTC price goes up, confidence grows, and they keep raising capital.
This model works very well when the market believes Bitcoin will keep rising.
But I wonder...
What if Bitcoin doesn’t drop much, and it doesn’t rise much either?
A prolonged sideways market would change everything.
Equity premiums could shrink.
Raising new capital could become harder.
The cost of capital could increase.
Meanwhile, financial obligations like dividends on preferred stock and commitments to investors still have to be met.
That’s something not many people mention.
In my view, this model isn’t just propped up by Bitcoin.
It’s also propped up by the belief that there will always be fresh inflows ready to fund the next Bitcoin purchase.
If that belief weakens, the loop loses momentum.
I’m not saying the Strategy will collapse.
But I think the real test for this model won’t come from a 30% drop.
It will come in a market so boring that nobody wants to pump in more capital anymore.
$MMT $COTI $DEXE
I’m no longer afraid of Bitcoin dropping. I start to be afraid of Bitcoin not going up.
Everyone talks about a crash.
But I keep thinking the most dangerous scenario for Michael Saylor’s Strategy could be... Bitcoin going sideways.
Not 3 months.
But 2–3 years.
Over the years, the Strategy machine has been running on a familiar loop:
➡️ Issue new shares or other financial instruments.
➡️ Raise capital.
➡️ Buy more Bitcoin.
➡️ The BTC price goes up, confidence grows, and they keep raising capital.
This model works very well when the market believes Bitcoin will keep rising.
But I wonder...
What if Bitcoin doesn’t drop much, and it doesn’t rise much either?
A prolonged sideways market would change everything.
Equity premiums could shrink.
Raising new capital could become harder.
The cost of capital could increase.
Meanwhile, financial obligations like dividends on preferred stock and commitments to investors still have to be met.
That’s something not many people mention.
In my view, this model isn’t just propped up by Bitcoin.
It’s also propped up by the belief that there will always be fresh inflows ready to fund the next Bitcoin purchase.
If that belief weakens, the loop loses momentum.
I’m not saying the Strategy will collapse.
But I think the real test for this model won’t come from a 30% drop.
It will come in a market so boring that nobody wants to pump in more capital anymore.
$MMT $COTI $DEXE