▍Looking back, the bear market has already passed more than half…
On August 1, 2026, time has really flown—before you know it, it’s already August.
$BTC Compared with Bitcoin’s 120,000 peak, it feels like it happened just a short while ago—yet, in a flash, it’s already like the scenes of last October.
No matter whether you look at the time or the drawdown, the bear market has already run for most of the way, and the period to buy the dip is getting closer.
Maybe it’s still 3–5 months away from the big crash.
Maybe this Q3 quarter will be the time to buy the dip.
We’ve already been waiting for 10 months, and we don’t mind waiting a few more months—we just need to wait for one major crash.
Stay true to your original intention, and you will succeed to the end.
In the crypto trading circle, there are two kinds of ruthless people:
1. Since entering the market, I’ve never touched futures.
2. If you touch a contract, you can get out and play spot.
The ultimate hardcore trader only trades once or twice a year.
If a person can sit quietly for 1 hour every day, objectively and calmly model the future, they can stand out in the market.
All emotional decision-making will end in failure.
Huge returns—always accompanied by volatility that’s beyond most people’s expectations.
Any volatility that’s within most people’s expectations isn’t worth trading.
Do what’s different from everyone else, and you’ll get results that are different from everyone else.
▍Traveled for a few days and didn’t look at the BTC chip structure. When I refreshed the data, I “got a shock”:
On URPD, at the $63,000 level you could say it stands like a lone pillar in the sky; as of today, it has already accumulated up to 890k BTC.
If I remember correctly, in a single price range, such intense long-vs-short battles—sometime from the end of 2025 to now—should be the first time.
If it weren’t for Coinbase locking 550k coins in the $83,000-$84,000 range, then at $63,000 right now it would probably already be over 1 million coins.
What does 1 million BTC mean? It’s 5% of total circulation: historically, whenever this scale is exceeded, there’s basically been a major shock at least once.
Because the short-term chips are too concentrated, the price sensitivity increases.
At the end of October 2022—just before the FTX collapse—back then there were 1 million BTC at around $19,000, and 870k BTC at around $18,000. Combined, those two positions made up 9.7% of the total circulating supply.
Everyone knows what happened next: one event served as the fuse, and combined with the fragility of the chip structure, it triggered a big swing. And right now, $62,000 and $63,000 combined already reach 8%.......
(By the way, today the chip concentration has already reached 13%, entering the warning zone; it's only a step away from 15%.) Come on—give it to me straight, no beating around the bush!🤣🤣🤣
Observe the market tide—when the tide rises and falls, it's nothing more than the cycle of bull and bear;
In the way of trading, greed, anger, ignorance, and obsession—it's only sinking and floating in the sea of desire.
Bull and bear alternate endlessly; the original intention remains unchanged. May we: be neither greedy nor restless, and move forward steadily!