In August, the overall U.S. stock market has entered a critical observation period. Many friends are asking whether they can position themselves after the sharp drop in SanDisk. Based on the current macro environment, sectors, and individual stocks, here are my thoughts.
The biggest variable for the U.S. market remains the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A slight rebound in inflation has reignited concerns about further rate hikes. High-valuation tech stocks are hard to see a clean one-way rally. The market is likely to trade in a range and grind sideways. As time goes on, capital will increasingly value companies’ real earnings. AI small-cap stocks that are merely told as stories will continue to be abandoned, while “hard-demand” sectors such as compute and storage tend to show stronger resilience.
Focusing on SanDisk: after a round of steep sell-off, it saw a modest rebound. The peak single-day rebound was nearly 26%. The rebound momentum was driven by major players’ earnings reports boosting AI confidence, but the rebound strength was limited and failed to recapture the prior drawdown. On the positive side, the industry’s supply shortage situation has not changed. Multiple investment banks still expect SanDisk’s next-quarter performance to be solid. The downside is that, in the short term, retail investors and institutional panic sentiment have not fully dissipated. Turnover remains high, and selling pressure still exists.
My judgment is straightforward: don’t rush to pick the bottom in the short term. SanDisk’s volatility is extremely high, and it’s easy to chase after the rebound peaks. In the medium term, you can slowly watch and wait for signs of stabilization. Before the broader U.S. market sends clear signals of easier policy, it will be difficult for the storage sector to rally strongly as a group. SanDisk’s subsequent performance is entirely tied to the pace of AI deployment and the price of NAND flash. A more稳健 approach is to wait for earnings to land and for the stock price to stabilize without large swings, and then consider phased entries. Aggressive short-term trades are only suitable for quick in-and-out—avoid making a long-term, heavily weighted bet.
#TradFi晒单
The biggest variable for the U.S. market remains the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. A slight rebound in inflation has reignited concerns about further rate hikes. High-valuation tech stocks are hard to see a clean one-way rally. The market is likely to trade in a range and grind sideways. As time goes on, capital will increasingly value companies’ real earnings. AI small-cap stocks that are merely told as stories will continue to be abandoned, while “hard-demand” sectors such as compute and storage tend to show stronger resilience.
Focusing on SanDisk: after a round of steep sell-off, it saw a modest rebound. The peak single-day rebound was nearly 26%. The rebound momentum was driven by major players’ earnings reports boosting AI confidence, but the rebound strength was limited and failed to recapture the prior drawdown. On the positive side, the industry’s supply shortage situation has not changed. Multiple investment banks still expect SanDisk’s next-quarter performance to be solid. The downside is that, in the short term, retail investors and institutional panic sentiment have not fully dissipated. Turnover remains high, and selling pressure still exists.
My judgment is straightforward: don’t rush to pick the bottom in the short term. SanDisk’s volatility is extremely high, and it’s easy to chase after the rebound peaks. In the medium term, you can slowly watch and wait for signs of stabilization. Before the broader U.S. market sends clear signals of easier policy, it will be difficult for the storage sector to rally strongly as a group. SanDisk’s subsequent performance is entirely tied to the pace of AI deployment and the price of NAND flash. A more稳健 approach is to wait for earnings to land and for the stock price to stabilize without large swings, and then consider phased entries. Aggressive short-term trades are only suitable for quick in-and-out—avoid making a long-term, heavily weighted bet.
#TradFi晒单