Onyxcoin has shown one of the strongest performances among small-cap tokens since the beginning of the year. The XCN price has surged over 116%, bringing the token back close to the US$0.0100 level after months of decline.
This sharp recovery reflects the resurgence of speculative interest and aggressive accumulation. However, the profit surge among short-term holders now also brings the risk of a new downturn.
Holder Onyxcoin Gets Supply
On-chain HODL Waves data shows a significant shift in XCN ownership over the past two weeks. Addresses that bought Onyxcoin within the last one to three months now control nearly 37% of the total circulating supply.
At the beginning of this month, this group held only 19%. Such a rapid increase indicates extremely strong demand from new participants.
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This accumulation wave has played a key role in reversing XCN's previous downtrend. New holders typically enter during momentum phases, causing price movements to accelerate due to concentrated buying.
Their growing dominance helps stabilize XCN's price above the last low. However, heavy reliance on short-term capital could increase volatility if sentiment shifts rapidly.
Profits Shifting to Volatile Hands
Broader momentum indicators are giving caution signals even though the rally remains strong. The MVRV Long/Short Difference is still highly negative, around -64.9%, indicating that supply is dominated by short-term holders who have recorded unrealized gains.
Historically, such conditions make the market more sensitive to profit-taking. The most profitable group are addresses that accumulated XCN toward the end of 2025 and early 2026. These holders are now sitting on substantial gains after a very rapid rally.
When short-term profits surge, selling pressure typically increases as investors try to secure gains before momentum fades. This dynamic poses the main risk to XCN's price stability in the near term.
XCN Price Is Moving Sideways
XCN was trading in the US$0.0090 range at publication time, barely holding above the US$0.0088 support. This altcoin has been moving sideways in this zone for several sessions, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. Holding this support is crucial to maintaining the short-term bullish structure.
Maintaining the rally will be difficult if short-term holders start exiting their positions. Rising profits increase the incentive to sell quickly. If XCN drops below US$0.0088, confidence could weaken and push prices down to US$0.0077. If that level is breached, the token risks falling further to around US$0.0065, erasing nearly all of the recent recovery.
A bullish scenario remains possible if selling pressure stays limited. If short-term holders don't rush to take profits, XCN could strengthen again. A confirmed move above US$0.0095 would signal renewed strength.
If that resistance level is broken, prices could rise to US$0.0108, bringing the token back above the psychological level of US$0.0100 and eliminating the bearish scenario.