which country are you talking about?
Post
Mario Holder
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🚨 Don't buy a house this year - unless you're very well capitalized.
I've spent over two decades studying macrocycles.
From the 2008 housing collapse to the 2020 liquidity surge,
Each major turning point left structural clues long before headlines caught up.
Look closely at the data.
The 2006 housing bubble peaked near 266.
Today, real estate price indices sit at similar levels - and even higher in some areas.
This does not signal strength.
It signals frozen pricing.
→ Supply and demand are severely misaligned
Redfin Data shows approximately 36.8% more sellers than buyers.
Buyer demand is near levels last seen during the 2020 lockdowns.
This is not a temporary dip.
It's a break in market velocity.
→ Mortgage lock-in distorts reality
A large portion of homeowners are anchored to ~3% fixed mortgages.
With 30-year rates near 6.5%, the cost of moving has become prohibitive.
As a result:
Prices appear "stable," but only because transactions have collapsed.
Liquidity has vanished - and illiquid markets don't discover true value.
→ Buying now means paying peak monthly costs. You're locking in a high interest rate. In an asset that hasn't been stress-tested by real volume.
If you're leveraged 5:1 on a house that stays flat while carrying a 6.5% interest rate, you're not building wealth - you're slowly draining capital.
This is the structural trap many are missing.
The macro setup ahead
The true reset usually occurs during the fatigue phase.
→ Late 2026 - 2027
→ Life Events Force Sales (Relocation, Retirement, Divorce)
→ Economic growth slows
→ Affordability finally rebounds
That's when the real opportunity emerges - not during artificial stability.
I've spent over two decades studying macrocycles.
From the 2008 housing collapse to the 2020 liquidity surge,
Each major turning point left structural clues long before headlines caught up.
Look closely at the data.
The 2006 housing bubble peaked near 266.
Today, real estate price indices sit at similar levels - and even higher in some areas.
This does not signal strength.
It signals frozen pricing.
→ Supply and demand are severely misaligned
Redfin Data shows approximately 36.8% more sellers than buyers.
Buyer demand is near levels last seen during the 2020 lockdowns.
This is not a temporary dip.
It's a break in market velocity.
→ Mortgage lock-in distorts reality
A large portion of homeowners are anchored to ~3% fixed mortgages.
With 30-year rates near 6.5%, the cost of moving has become prohibitive.
As a result:
Prices appear "stable," but only because transactions have collapsed.
Liquidity has vanished - and illiquid markets don't discover true value.
→ Buying now means paying peak monthly costs. You're locking in a high interest rate. In an asset that hasn't been stress-tested by real volume.
If you're leveraged 5:1 on a house that stays flat while carrying a 6.5% interest rate, you're not building wealth - you're slowly draining capital.
This is the structural trap many are missing.
The macro setup ahead
The true reset usually occurs during the fatigue phase.
→ Late 2026 - 2027
→ Life Events Force Sales (Relocation, Retirement, Divorce)
→ Economic growth slows
→ Affordability finally rebounds
That's when the real opportunity emerges - not during artificial stability.
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.