#TradFi晒单 This evening I flat the MUB spot I picked up earlier. This trade’s take is different from the earlier one where I bought MUB—I’m not going to talk about the “sweet spot” from the 0.15 U dividend snapshot for the July 21 deal that already hit my account, and I’m not going to write a long HBM thesis either. It’s simply that MU’s underlying stock has climbed more than 700% year-to-date and the crowd is extremely overheated: in early July, executives kept selling one after another, and analysts’ average price targets were wildly out of whack versus the current price. Haven’t we forgotten what the memory-cycle thing taught us in 2022? MUB is an ADGM custodian 1:1 certificate with no voting rights. When the underlying stock is closed for holidays, you can’t even hang hedges. This three-layer stack—“dividend already harvested + emotion at an extreme + fear that the cycle will snap back”—isn’t something I’ll hold through the weekend. I exited on a low-volume afternoon rebound, and I’ll wait to see whether, when the underlying MU stock retraces and tests the 50-day moving average in August, it turns back or not. Are you holding MUB because you believe there’s an HBM gap, or are you worried that MU’s valuation will collapse first?