Just past midnight, the gold price is still pushing higher around the 4108 level. I checked the contemporaneous news flow—this time, the force pushing it is not coming from the U.S. side.
The main driver is from the UK. In a report dated July 30, Andrew Wishart, an analyst at Berenberg, said that despite an energy price shock, economic activity in Europe in Q2 still showed resilience. This reduces the likelihood that a “precautionary rate hike” would pose risks to the job market—read between the lines: the Bank of England doesn’t necessarily have to cling to tight policy. The market has been leaning into this message: as the tightening loosens and UK gilt yields fall, there is room for real yields to move lower; and once real yields drop, gold—which doesn’t pay interest—also benefits, as does the other line that tracks spot prices, $AAPLB , in the Middle East.
On Israel’s side, on July 30 it said that in Cairo, negotiations between Hamas and the mediating party had “made progress” on the issue of disarmament. As talks move forward by another step, the risk premium embedded in oil prices gets a bit more room to unwind; inflation eases by a fraction too—again, pulling real yields lower.
⚠️ But both effects are still in the “expectations” stage: an analyst report, and a line like “made progress.” There’s still distance from rate cuts actually being implemented and from a deal being signed. So the quality of this rally is somewhat soft—use the direction as a reference, but don’t treat it as a foregone conclusion.
Looking ahead, keep an eye on two things: whether the UK’s official messaging will follow the analysts’ tone, and whether Cairo can produce substantive text. If either side walks back, the “real yields falling” leg will have to be re-measured.
More than how much it’s risen, whether it can hold above 4108 is what really matters. Do you think this is the main theme switching gears—or just another case of expectations running ahead?
#黄金
The main driver is from the UK. In a report dated July 30, Andrew Wishart, an analyst at Berenberg, said that despite an energy price shock, economic activity in Europe in Q2 still showed resilience. This reduces the likelihood that a “precautionary rate hike” would pose risks to the job market—read between the lines: the Bank of England doesn’t necessarily have to cling to tight policy. The market has been leaning into this message: as the tightening loosens and UK gilt yields fall, there is room for real yields to move lower; and once real yields drop, gold—which doesn’t pay interest—also benefits, as does the other line that tracks spot prices, $AAPLB , in the Middle East.
On Israel’s side, on July 30 it said that in Cairo, negotiations between Hamas and the mediating party had “made progress” on the issue of disarmament. As talks move forward by another step, the risk premium embedded in oil prices gets a bit more room to unwind; inflation eases by a fraction too—again, pulling real yields lower.
⚠️ But both effects are still in the “expectations” stage: an analyst report, and a line like “made progress.” There’s still distance from rate cuts actually being implemented and from a deal being signed. So the quality of this rally is somewhat soft—use the direction as a reference, but don’t treat it as a foregone conclusion.
Looking ahead, keep an eye on two things: whether the UK’s official messaging will follow the analysts’ tone, and whether Cairo can produce substantive text. If either side walks back, the “real yields falling” leg will have to be re-measured.
More than how much it’s risen, whether it can hold above 4108 is what really matters. Do you think this is the main theme switching gears—or just another case of expectations running ahead?
#黄金