In a bull market, the main line is “realizing profits.” Therefore, when the indicators return to break-even (the zero axis), it becomes the support point. When sellers clear the market, it’s easier to form a stage bottom.
In a bear market, the main line is “realizing losses”—the exact opposite of a bull market. When the market reaches break-even, it becomes a pressure point. It’s better to act early; a stage top is easier to form.
And currently, BTC is at the net break-even point.
Based on the logic above, if we only look at smaller timeframes, the probability of “going down” is definitely higher than the probability of “going up” (including after a “fake breakout” followed by a drop).
But if we look from a higher dimension, we can interpret another layer of information:
In the two negative periods in February and June, the pattern is “higher highs, then lower highs.” When prices are lower, net losses are not amplified continuously—creating a divergence with price.
This implies that the preliminary process of a trend reversal is being slowly and quietly incubated.
Even if there is another drop, as long as net losses fall below the previous low again, then on a larger timeframe it can be nearly confirmed that the probability of “going up” will be greater than the probability of “going down.”
Just remember: historically, the end result of sustained divergence is when everything is decided in one decisive move.
In a bear market, the main line is “realizing losses”—the exact opposite of a bull market. When the market reaches break-even, it becomes a pressure point. It’s better to act early; a stage top is easier to form.
And currently, BTC is at the net break-even point.
Based on the logic above, if we only look at smaller timeframes, the probability of “going down” is definitely higher than the probability of “going up” (including after a “fake breakout” followed by a drop).
But if we look from a higher dimension, we can interpret another layer of information:
In the two negative periods in February and June, the pattern is “higher highs, then lower highs.” When prices are lower, net losses are not amplified continuously—creating a divergence with price.
This implies that the preliminary process of a trend reversal is being slowly and quietly incubated.
Even if there is another drop, as long as net losses fall below the previous low again, then on a larger timeframe it can be nearly confirmed that the probability of “going up” will be greater than the probability of “going down.”
Just remember: historically, the end result of sustained divergence is when everything is decided in one decisive move.
