The Fed may restart rate hikes in September, but the real danger isn’t a single hike—it’s the market realizing this might not be the last one.
At the July policy meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%.
On the surface there was no rate hike, but an important change emerged:
Among the 12 policymakers, 3 already supported an immediate 25-basis-point increase.
Wall Street’s expectations began to shift quickly as well.
Bank of America expects the Fed could raise rates consecutively in September, October, and December, each time by 25 basis points; Deutsche Bank expects one hike each in September and December.
But JPMorgan still believes the Fed may hold steady this year.
This means the market is no longer trading a certain outcome, but a growing risk:
If inflation continues to run above target, the September hike may not be a one-off policy adjustment, but the start of a new round of tightening.
For risk assets, this implies:
U.S. Treasury yields could stay elevated
Tech stock valuations may face further compression
The U.S. dollar may keep strengthening
Liquidity pressure in $BTC and alternative cryptocurrencies may increase
What’s more troublesome is that financial markets usually don’t wait until the Fed formally hikes rates before selling off.
As soon as the market starts believing in “consecutive rate hikes,” asset prices will be repriced ahead of time.
Do you think the September hike is just a warning—or the beginning of a new tightening cycle?
$BTC #美联储 #加息预期 #宏观市场
At the July policy meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%.
On the surface there was no rate hike, but an important change emerged:
Among the 12 policymakers, 3 already supported an immediate 25-basis-point increase.
Wall Street’s expectations began to shift quickly as well.
Bank of America expects the Fed could raise rates consecutively in September, October, and December, each time by 25 basis points; Deutsche Bank expects one hike each in September and December.
But JPMorgan still believes the Fed may hold steady this year.
This means the market is no longer trading a certain outcome, but a growing risk:
If inflation continues to run above target, the September hike may not be a one-off policy adjustment, but the start of a new round of tightening.
For risk assets, this implies:
U.S. Treasury yields could stay elevated
Tech stock valuations may face further compression
The U.S. dollar may keep strengthening
Liquidity pressure in $BTC and alternative cryptocurrencies may increase
What’s more troublesome is that financial markets usually don’t wait until the Fed formally hikes rates before selling off.
As soon as the market starts believing in “consecutive rate hikes,” asset prices will be repriced ahead of time.
Do you think the September hike is just a warning—or the beginning of a new tightening cycle?
$BTC #美联储 #加息预期 #宏观市场