📊 Bitcoin Analysis — July 29, 2026
🔵 Current Price
Bitcoin is trading around `$64.619` (TradingEconomics), with a daily change of +1.16%. The market shows a slight recovery after testing important supports over the past few weeks.
🟠 Macro Context — Fed Meeting (Today!)
The big event today is the **FOMC (Federal Reserve) meeting** on July 28-29, under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. The current rate is between **3.5% and 3.75%**. The market is split between expectations of a rate cut, a hold, or a hawkish tone. This decision tends to bring **high volatility** to cryptocurrencies and stocks.
🔍 Technical Analysis
📈 Overview
- 30-day average: low of `$57.717` (01/07) and high of `$66.923` (21/07)
- Year-to-date drop: BTC is -45.16% in 2026
- 52-week high: `$126.184` (Oct/2025) — down ~49% since then
🎯 Key Levels
| Level | Value | Importance |
| Resistance 1** | `$65.000` | Psychological zone and recent top |
| Resistance 2| `$66.500` | July high (21/07) |
| Resistance 3 | `$70.000` | Next psychological barrier |
| Support 1 | `$63.800` | Immediate Support |
| Support 2 | `$61.500` | Intermediate support |
| Support 3 | `$57.700` | July minimum — if it fails, next target `$50.000` |
📉 Identified Patterns
- Bearish channel: BTC is forming lower highs and lower lows since the all-time high
- Resistance test: In the past few weeks, price tested `$65.000` but couldn’t break through convincingly
- Volume: Spot Bitcoin ETF flow in the US has been positive (more than `$600M` over 5 consecutive days), which provides support
🔮 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario: If the Fed signals monetary easing and BTC breaks `$65.000` with volume, the next target is `$66.500`, then `$70.000`. Positive ETF flows and a recovery in the weak dollar support this scenario.
🔴 Bearish Scenario: If the Fed is hawkish (higher rates for longer), BTC may lose `$63.800` and seek `$61.500` again. A close below `$57.700` would open the path to `$50.000`
📰 News of the Day
- FOMC decision today — the main catalyst for volatility
- Bitcoin ETFs accumulate positive inflows, signaling institutional demand
- Correlation with stocks increased — BTC follows the traditional market more closely
- US inflation shows signs of cooling, which could favor interest-rate cuts
In summary
- Current price: ~`$64.619` (+1.16% on the day)
- Main event: Fed decision today (FOMC) — highest expected volatility
- BTC for the year: -45%, still in a long-term downtrend
- Critical level: A break of `$65.000` can lead to `$70.000`; losing `$57.700` opens the way to `$50.000`
- Institutional support: ETFs with positive inflows help keep the price steady.
Note: Do your own analysis and make your own decisions; this is not investment advice.