Post time: 2026-07-29 11:01 (Beijing Time)
ETH is just hovering around $1,908 for now. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the 2:00 a.m. FOMC on July 30. No one wants to make the first move, and the whole market is in a "whoever moves loses" mode.
📊 What’s going on right now?
Price: $1,908.57 Funding rate: +0.0029% (neutral) Open interest (OI): 2.29M ETH (holding steady at a low level)
Multi-timeframe signals split:
1 hour: RSI 61.7 slightly bullish, but MACD triple contraction (2.44→1.22), upward momentum is weakening
4 hours: RSI 49 neutral, MACD still negative—the bearish setup hasn’t flipped
15 minutes: RSI 41, MACD is moving sideways—no direction
Three cycles each speaking their own language = sideways movement.
🔍 Three phenomena
① Volume keeps getting smaller
Nearly 107,000 ETH in the past hour; average 145,000 ETH over the last 3 hours; volume ratio at 0.74x. From 5:00 to 9:00 this morning, it fell from 78,000 per hour to 66,000—everyone’s just slacking off waiting for the FOMC.
② The moving averages are sticking together
1-hour EMA21=$1,907.83, EMA55=$1,907.70, a difference of $0.13—basically overlapping. Price at $1,909 is just bouncing around in the cluster of MAs. When MAs converge, direction must be chosen but hasn’t been—where the next high-volume candle moves is the real direction.
③ Cycles are fighting each other
1 hour slightly bullish (but momentum is weak); 4 hours neutral to bearish (MACD is still negative); 15 minutes no direction.
→ Sideways, not a trend.
⏰ Next 4 hours
FOMC is at 2:00 AM on July 30 (Thursday), which is 15 hours from now. Until tomorrow before 2:00 AM, it’s likely to stay in this narrow range.
🚦 How to judge the direction?
Maintain range trading: price is at $1,898–$1,928; 1-hour traded volume stays around <130,000 ETH; the Taker is between 0.85 and 1.15
Breakout to the upside: the last two hourly candles closed above $1,930 consecutively, and volume per candle is >160,000 ETH
Breakdown to the downside: a valid break below $1,898, and the 1-hour MACD turns negative (the golden-cross structure breaks)
📍 Key levels
💡 Summary
Dead fish range trading. $1,898–$1,928 is moving sideways; before the FOMC there won’t be a big move. Jumping in now is basically a gamble—wait until the FOMC lands at 2:00 AM on July 30, and then consider after 2:30 when Woosh gives his remarks.
⚠️ FOMC (2:00 AM on July 30) is the biggest variable, and Woosh’s 2:30 remarks are also crucial.
