In the past few rounds of Bitcoin price increases, is it really just due to the halving?
Probably not.
In 2017, Bitcoin rode a wave of large-scale mainstream attention driven by the expansion of exchanges and the popularization of the digital currency concept. The bull market after 2020 was underpinned by global monetary easing, low interest rates, and extremely loose liquidity. Later, institutional capital entered the market, and spot ETFs opened an additional channel—another game altogether.
The halving happens every time, but what truly pushes the price up isn’t exactly the same each time.
The halving only reduces the number of coins issued; it does not magically create the money needed to buy those coins. If miners sell a bit less every day, naturally it reduces selling pressure. But for Bitcoin to rise from one price level to another, ultimately someone still has to bring real money into the market.
If after 2028 the world re-enters a period of easing, with ample dollar liquidity and sustained institutional inflows, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see a big行情 in 2029.
But if at that time interest rates are high, liquidity is tightened, regulation shifts, and risk appetite remains subdued, then the halving by itself can’t save the day.
Many people have the causality backwards.
They think the halving creates the bull market. In reality, it’s more likely that the halving provides a good, memorable, and easily spread story—while what truly ignites the rally is liquidity, sentiment, and new capital.
What’s more, today’s Bitcoin is no longer the speculative plaything from a small pond a decade ago.
Back then, because Bitcoin’s market cap was smaller, relatively modest swings in funds—hundreds of millions or even hundreds of billions of dollars—could send the price soaring or crashing dramatically. Now the “plate” is getting bigger; to replicate the kind of gains of dozens or even hundreds of times seen early on, you don’t just need a bit more money—you need vastly more.
So, Bitcoin’s cycles may still exist, but the power of those cycles is likely to weaken over time. It may keep rising and may even set new highs, but it may not again—at some point in a given year—lift everyone up in unison the way it did in the past.
There’s another more troublesome issue.
Once a pattern becomes known to everyone, it often no longer plays out the same way.
If everyone believes 2029 will be a bull market, then truly smart money won’t wait until 2029 to enter. They might start positioning as early as 2027 and begin trading the halving expectations as early as 2028. #长鑫存储科创板IPO募资579亿元
Probably not.
In 2017, Bitcoin rode a wave of large-scale mainstream attention driven by the expansion of exchanges and the popularization of the digital currency concept. The bull market after 2020 was underpinned by global monetary easing, low interest rates, and extremely loose liquidity. Later, institutional capital entered the market, and spot ETFs opened an additional channel—another game altogether.
The halving happens every time, but what truly pushes the price up isn’t exactly the same each time.
The halving only reduces the number of coins issued; it does not magically create the money needed to buy those coins. If miners sell a bit less every day, naturally it reduces selling pressure. But for Bitcoin to rise from one price level to another, ultimately someone still has to bring real money into the market.
If after 2028 the world re-enters a period of easing, with ample dollar liquidity and sustained institutional inflows, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see a big行情 in 2029.
But if at that time interest rates are high, liquidity is tightened, regulation shifts, and risk appetite remains subdued, then the halving by itself can’t save the day.
Many people have the causality backwards.
They think the halving creates the bull market. In reality, it’s more likely that the halving provides a good, memorable, and easily spread story—while what truly ignites the rally is liquidity, sentiment, and new capital.
What’s more, today’s Bitcoin is no longer the speculative plaything from a small pond a decade ago.
Back then, because Bitcoin’s market cap was smaller, relatively modest swings in funds—hundreds of millions or even hundreds of billions of dollars—could send the price soaring or crashing dramatically. Now the “plate” is getting bigger; to replicate the kind of gains of dozens or even hundreds of times seen early on, you don’t just need a bit more money—you need vastly more.
So, Bitcoin’s cycles may still exist, but the power of those cycles is likely to weaken over time. It may keep rising and may even set new highs, but it may not again—at some point in a given year—lift everyone up in unison the way it did in the past.
There’s another more troublesome issue.
Once a pattern becomes known to everyone, it often no longer plays out the same way.
If everyone believes 2029 will be a bull market, then truly smart money won’t wait until 2029 to enter. They might start positioning as early as 2027 and begin trading the halving expectations as early as 2028. #长鑫存储科创板IPO募资579亿元