I heard that Coinbase will issue a token $BASE this year, and then I discovered a significant profit opportunity on Polymarket's market. It seems like the traders there haven't yet conducted fundamental analysis...

Currently, the probability of 'Yes' for the 4B–8B threshold remains within the 77%–40% range. Simply put, a considerable number of traders believe that $BASE's FDV will struggle to exceed the minimum 4B valuation.

But personally, I believe $BASE is highly likely to surpass 4B, and could even reach 8B or higher!

✨ Buying 4B (around 77% probability) offers a potential return of about 30%;
✨ Buying 6B (around 69% probability) offers a potential return of about 45%;
✨ Buying 8B (around 49% probability) could yield a return as high as 104%.

The most straightforward valuation logic comes from two core perspectives:

First, Coinbase is a top-tier U.S. exchange with approximately 120 million monthly active visitors, second only to Binance's 180 million, and it has a high proportion of institutional users with strong regulatory advantages.

Comparing with other exchange tokens' FDVs:
$BNB ≈ 125B
CRO ≈ 10B
BGB ≈ 3B
OKB ≈ 2.3B

Second, looking at Base chain's own data, it has recently stabilized as the 5th largest public blockchain globally, with TVL around 4.75B, approximately 520,000 daily active addresses, and over 800 on-chain protocols.

Overall, I believe it's extremely unlikely that BASE's FDV will stay below 4B, and 6B–8B can be considered a solid baseline range, with 10B or more representing upside potential during a bull market!

While it's not a 100% guaranteed profit, the confidence in this assessment is indeed very high!