Changxin’s first day surge: up 465%, market cap 3.28 trillion—who’s cashing in?
Summary: The biggest winners are Hefei state assets and the Alibaba ecosystem.
Translated into closing market capitalization:
— Hefei state assets’ holdings: about 1.086 trillion
— Alibaba ecosystem: about 147.7 billion
— Executives including Zhu Yiming (10 people): about 98.7 billion
— Strategic allotment by the national team (paper gains): about 35.5 billion
— Entities including E Fund, Southern Fund, and Industrial and Commercial (paper gains total): about 17.2 billion
— Taikang Asset Management (paper gains): about 7.0 billion
— IPO subscription gains by Liang Wenfeng’s fund: about 819 million
The numbers are explosive, but they’re still just on paper.
After Changxin’s issuance, total shares outstanding are 66.881 billion. In the early stage of listing, only 4.503 billion shares can actually be traded, accounting for just 6.73%.
In other words: with only a 6.73% float, a price of 3.28 trillion has been set for 100% of the total share capital.
And the core chips can’t be sold in the short term at all.
Hefei state assets hold about 22.142 billion shares, with 95.9% locked until 2029. Core shareholders such as the Phase II Big Fund, Hefei Jinxin, Anhui provincial investment, and others are also locked for three years. Based on the current market cap, the shares corresponding to about 1.78 trillion that are locked will only enter the theoretical unlock window in 2029.
The real first test of chips comes in 2027:
— In January, 1.521 billion shares of offline restricted stock expire
— In July, about 21.4 billion shares of original shares enter the theoretical unlock window
For the latter, based on the current valuation, it corresponds to about 1.05 trillion worth of chips.
So what the market is trading now is not only the industrial value of domestically produced DRAM, but also the simultaneous resonance of the leading players’ scarcity, the policy premium, and the low float.
The industrial value is real, and the amplified pricing is real too.
Can Changxin hold on to a 3 trillion market cap? It doesn’t depend on how many people are rushing in today—it depends on how much capital is willing to step in once the chips start to loosen in 2027.
Summary: The biggest winners are Hefei state assets and the Alibaba ecosystem.
Translated into closing market capitalization:
— Hefei state assets’ holdings: about 1.086 trillion
— Alibaba ecosystem: about 147.7 billion
— Executives including Zhu Yiming (10 people): about 98.7 billion
— Strategic allotment by the national team (paper gains): about 35.5 billion
— Entities including E Fund, Southern Fund, and Industrial and Commercial (paper gains total): about 17.2 billion
— Taikang Asset Management (paper gains): about 7.0 billion
— IPO subscription gains by Liang Wenfeng’s fund: about 819 million
The numbers are explosive, but they’re still just on paper.
After Changxin’s issuance, total shares outstanding are 66.881 billion. In the early stage of listing, only 4.503 billion shares can actually be traded, accounting for just 6.73%.
In other words: with only a 6.73% float, a price of 3.28 trillion has been set for 100% of the total share capital.
And the core chips can’t be sold in the short term at all.
Hefei state assets hold about 22.142 billion shares, with 95.9% locked until 2029. Core shareholders such as the Phase II Big Fund, Hefei Jinxin, Anhui provincial investment, and others are also locked for three years. Based on the current market cap, the shares corresponding to about 1.78 trillion that are locked will only enter the theoretical unlock window in 2029.
The real first test of chips comes in 2027:
— In January, 1.521 billion shares of offline restricted stock expire
— In July, about 21.4 billion shares of original shares enter the theoretical unlock window
For the latter, based on the current valuation, it corresponds to about 1.05 trillion worth of chips.
So what the market is trading now is not only the industrial value of domestically produced DRAM, but also the simultaneous resonance of the leading players’ scarcity, the policy premium, and the low float.
The industrial value is real, and the amplified pricing is real too.
Can Changxin hold on to a 3 trillion market cap? It doesn’t depend on how many people are rushing in today—it depends on how much capital is willing to step in once the chips start to loosen in 2027.