First, the conclusion:

Based on Changxin's profits and the P/E ratios of the world's three largest memory companies, Changxin's fair valuation is 1.7 trillion to 2.1 trillion yuan.

Given the scarcity of domestic DRAM leaders, the market may assign a premium valuation of 2.1 trillion to 3 trillion yuan.

If we also add a low free-float ratio of 6.73% and the market sentiment brought by the $95 billion semiconductor cooperation announced by South Korea, there is a possibility that intraday trading could be pressured to 3 to 4 trillion yuan.

1. Based on profits and peers' P/E ratios, how much is Changxin worth?

As of the close on July 24, the data for the world's three largest memory companies are roughly as follows:

Samsung Electronics: market cap of about 7.35 trillion yuan, profit over the past 12 months of about 386.7 billion yuan, and a P/E ratio of about 20x;

SK hynix: market cap of about 5.95 trillion yuan, profit over the past 12 months of about 348.7 billion yuan, and a P/E ratio of about 17x;

Micron: market cap of about 7.04 trillion yuan, profit over the past 12 months of about 341.8 billion yuan, and a P/E ratio of about 21x.

Using CXMT’s 2026 net profit of 100 billion yuan as the benchmark:

A market cap of 2.1 trillion yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21x;

A market cap of 3 trillion yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 30x;

A market cap of 4 trillion yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 40x.

Therefore, when CXMT reaches 2.1 trillion yuan, the valuation is roughly in line with international peers.

CXMT is not as strong as the top three companies in scale, technology, or customers. However, it is the only A-share company capable of producing DRAM at large scale. The market may award it some valuation premium for domestic substitution and scarcity.

Please note that the three international companies use profits over the past 12 months, while CXMT uses estimated profits for 2026. This set of data is mainly used to observe where valuation levels sit; it should not be taken as a fully equivalent comparison basis.

II. South Korea’s cooperation worth 95 billion USD—why might it raise CXMT’s valuation?

On July 24, South Korea announced that Samsung and SK Group will work with companies including Broadcom and Nvidia to推进 semiconductor cooperation worth about 950 billion USD over the next five years.

The cooperation involves HBM, advanced memory, and AI data centers, which will further strengthen market expectations for demand for memory chips and industry cycle optimism.

This news was released before Changxin (CXMT) was listed. It may increase capital’s attention to the memory sector and push the market to assign CXMT a higher sentiment valuation.

III. Why could CXMT possibly surge to 3 trillion or even 4 trillion yuan on its first day?

Based on profits and peer valuations, CXMT’s reasonable market cap is about 1.7 to 2.1 trillion yuan. However, the price on the first day of listing will also be affected by the number of tradable shares.

After CXMT’s issuance, there are a total of 6.6881 billion shares. On the first day, only 4.503 billion shares can be traded, representing about 6.73% of the total share capital.

If there are relatively few sellers and the buy-side capital is highly concentrated, the stock price could be rapidly pushed up in a short period of time. The total market cap is calculated by multiplying the current share price by all 6.6881 billion shares, so an extreme market cap far above a reasonable valuation may occur.

If the total market cap reaches 3 trillion yuan, the stock price would need to rise to 44.86 yuan, up about 418% from the offering price, corresponding to a circulating market cap of about 202 billion yuan.

If the total market cap reaches 4 trillion yuan, the stock price would need to rise to 59.81 yuan, up about 591% from the offering price, corresponding to a circulating market cap of about 269.3 billion yuan.

There is no daily price limit for the first five trading days for new stocks on the STAR Market. Combined with a low float ratio of 6.73%, it is possible for trading during the day to hit 3 trillion to 4 trillion yuan.

However, 4 trillion yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 40x, which requires low float, strong sentiment, and a large amount of capital to absorb shares at the same time.

Final conclusion:

CXMT’s valuation around 2 trillion yuan is basically reasonable based on fundamentals. Reaching 3 trillion yuan requires a premium for domestic substitution and scarcity. Hitting 4 trillion yuan during trading mainly relies on low float, strong sentiment, and capital-driven momentum.