The ceasefire deal has come with a condition from Iran.
On July 26 Beijing time, Reuters cited senior Iranian sources as saying that as long as the United States maintains the current ceasefire status, Iran will stop its attacks. The same source also didn’t put it entirely in black and white—after the U.S. paused attacks on Iran, their attitude was “more skepticism than optimism.”
For gold, this news lands squarely on oil. If fighting in oil-producing regions stops, the portion of the oil price attributable to war risk premium needs to get squeezed out. The room for imagination around imported inflation is cut back a notch, and market worries about “inflation forcing tougher policy” ease by a bit—this layer, in fact, leans toward gold being relatively more favorable. $PAXG tracks spot gold along precisely that line.
But don’t skip those six words: “more skepticism than optimism.” This is a conditional ceasefire, with the condition-setter being the United States—not Iran. If the ceasefire is maintained for a day, the above reasoning holds for a day; once the condition is breached, you have to start the whole assessment over again.
So what should you watch next? Watch how the oil price responds—how real it is. If crude oil stubbornly refuses to give back that risk premium, it means the market never really believed the ceasefire, and gold’s pricing shouldn’t rush to follow.
Do you think this ceasefire can last more than a week?
#黄金
On July 26 Beijing time, Reuters cited senior Iranian sources as saying that as long as the United States maintains the current ceasefire status, Iran will stop its attacks. The same source also didn’t put it entirely in black and white—after the U.S. paused attacks on Iran, their attitude was “more skepticism than optimism.”
For gold, this news lands squarely on oil. If fighting in oil-producing regions stops, the portion of the oil price attributable to war risk premium needs to get squeezed out. The room for imagination around imported inflation is cut back a notch, and market worries about “inflation forcing tougher policy” ease by a bit—this layer, in fact, leans toward gold being relatively more favorable. $PAXG tracks spot gold along precisely that line.
But don’t skip those six words: “more skepticism than optimism.” This is a conditional ceasefire, with the condition-setter being the United States—not Iran. If the ceasefire is maintained for a day, the above reasoning holds for a day; once the condition is breached, you have to start the whole assessment over again.
So what should you watch next? Watch how the oil price responds—how real it is. If crude oil stubbornly refuses to give back that risk premium, it means the market never really believed the ceasefire, and gold’s pricing shouldn’t rush to follow.
Do you think this ceasefire can last more than a week?
#黄金
