#全球央行权衡油价逼近百美元 2026 July 23, Brent crude oil intraday broke through $100/barrel (spot price on the 24th was $100.69), the first time above 100 since late May, up about 40% in the past 20 days. The trigger was the escalation of the US-Iran conflict + Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, putting the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait “dual channels” under pressure at the same time.
The moment oil prices broke 100, the script for global central banks was rewritten—shifting collectively from “when to cut rates” to “will they raise rates again.”
Federal Reserve: At the July 28–29 policy meeting, keeping the 3.50%–3.75% range unchanged is still the base case, but CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged from 53% a week earlier to 82%; even the probability of directly raising rates by 25bp next week has risen to around 35%. US June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%. With oil adding fuel to the fire, the rate-cut narrative has basically gone out.
European Central Bank: On July 24 it stayed put (deposit rate 2.25%), but Lagarde candidly admitted that “an internal discussion about raising rates” had taken place, leaving September as an option and warning that second-round energy effects will keep eurozone inflation above 2% through the first half of 2027. Markets have already priced in two more rate hikes this year.
Bank of England: The 10-year UK gilt yield has held above 5% for nearly two decades, a record. Next week’s policy meeting is very likely to stay unchanged, but easing expectations have been cut in half.
Bank of Japan: Inflation has rebounded for the first time in three months, the 2-year government bond yield hit a 31-year high, and policymakers are sounding more relaxed about “accelerating rate hikes,” but a weaker yen continues to tie their hands.
People’s Bank of China: “China’s policy should be based on our own conditions” + stronger exchange-rate flexibility to hedge imported inflation; PPI is being hit by the oil-price pulse, but CPI transmission via domestic demand is weak. The probability of a direct rate hike this year is extremely low; the window for reserve-requirement cuts or rate cuts depends on third-quarter fiscal bond issuance pace, though external high rates are squeezing room for easing.
The essence is a dilemma: hike rates to fight inflation and risk triggering stagflation; don’t hike and allow oil prices to pass through again, which is even more troublesome. Global bond markets first “fell” in respect—10-year German bund yields broke 3.21% (highest since 2011), French bonds broke 4%, and the US 10-year moved toward 4.68%—with markets voting for “higher for longer” through yields.
Over the next three weeks, watch three things: whether the US and Iran leave room for negotiations, actual traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the July FOMC statement treats oil prices as “one-off” or “persistent” — if the latter is confirmed, the “inflation + high interest rates” pricing regime for global assets will be re-anchored.
The moment oil prices broke 100, the script for global central banks was rewritten—shifting collectively from “when to cut rates” to “will they raise rates again.”
Federal Reserve: At the July 28–29 policy meeting, keeping the 3.50%–3.75% range unchanged is still the base case, but CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged from 53% a week earlier to 82%; even the probability of directly raising rates by 25bp next week has risen to around 35%. US June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%. With oil adding fuel to the fire, the rate-cut narrative has basically gone out.
European Central Bank: On July 24 it stayed put (deposit rate 2.25%), but Lagarde candidly admitted that “an internal discussion about raising rates” had taken place, leaving September as an option and warning that second-round energy effects will keep eurozone inflation above 2% through the first half of 2027. Markets have already priced in two more rate hikes this year.
Bank of England: The 10-year UK gilt yield has held above 5% for nearly two decades, a record. Next week’s policy meeting is very likely to stay unchanged, but easing expectations have been cut in half.
Bank of Japan: Inflation has rebounded for the first time in three months, the 2-year government bond yield hit a 31-year high, and policymakers are sounding more relaxed about “accelerating rate hikes,” but a weaker yen continues to tie their hands.
People’s Bank of China: “China’s policy should be based on our own conditions” + stronger exchange-rate flexibility to hedge imported inflation; PPI is being hit by the oil-price pulse, but CPI transmission via domestic demand is weak. The probability of a direct rate hike this year is extremely low; the window for reserve-requirement cuts or rate cuts depends on third-quarter fiscal bond issuance pace, though external high rates are squeezing room for easing.
The essence is a dilemma: hike rates to fight inflation and risk triggering stagflation; don’t hike and allow oil prices to pass through again, which is even more troublesome. Global bond markets first “fell” in respect—10-year German bund yields broke 3.21% (highest since 2011), French bonds broke 4%, and the US 10-year moved toward 4.68%—with markets voting for “higher for longer” through yields.
Over the next three weeks, watch three things: whether the US and Iran leave room for negotiations, actual traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the July FOMC statement treats oil prices as “one-off” or “persistent” — if the latter is confirmed, the “inflation + high interest rates” pricing regime for global assets will be re-anchored.