Contract $SNOW surged to $273: Is $264 a pullback opportunity, or will it encounter resistance again near $279?
Let's look at the surface first.
July 24th was the most recent trading day. Snowflake's US stock opened at $268.90, reached a high of $270.79, a low of $264.00, and closed at $268.06, with a volume of 3.4547 million shares. It has been revaluing since May 27th at $175.26, reaching $284.99 on June 1st, and recently has been fluctuating between $260 and $280, moving from an "earnings gap" to a "high-level verification" phase.
As of midday Beijing time on July 26th, Binance SNOWUSDT TradFi perpetual was trading at $273.62 USDT, up 1.99% in the last 24 hours, with a range of $257.38-$275.74. The contract price and the NYSE spot price should be considered separately: it's about $5.56 higher than the recent spot closing price, indicating that funds were betting ahead over the weekend, but whether this premium will hold depends on confirmation from spot transactions on the next trading day.
The first contradiction is the renewed acceleration in growth, which has also raised the valuation threshold. Snowflake's total revenue for the first fiscal quarter ending April 30 was $1.39 billion, a year-over-year increase of 33%; product revenue was $1.33 billion, an increase of 34%. The company gave guidance of $1.415 billion to $1.42 billion for product revenue in the second fiscal quarter, still corresponding to about 30% growth. Business hasn't slowed down, but the stock price has already risen significantly since the end of May, and another "meeting expectations" might not be enough.
The second contradiction is that while order visibility is strong, revenue recognition depends on actual customer consumption. Remaining fulfillment obligations are $9.12 billion, a year-over-year increase of 38%; net revenue retention rate is 126%, and there are 779 customers with annual product revenue exceeding $1 million. The contract pool is thickening, but Snowflake operates on a consumption-based billing model. Customer contracts don't guarantee immediate usage within the quarter. The key to growth quality lies in whether AI workloads can consistently translate into query and storage consumption.
The third contradiction is that while non-GAAP efficiency is improving, GAAP profits still have a shortfall. The company's second-quarter non-GAAP operating profit margin guidance is 12.5%, but the first-quarter GAAP net loss was $296 million; during the same period, stock-based compensation was $402 million, with unrecognized stock-based compensation costs of approximately $3.8 billion. High growth can absorb the dilution, but it cannot be ignored.
The key level to watch is initially $264-$260; holding this level indicates the high-level consolidation remains intact. The next support level is $250. The $279-$285 area represents a previous high-density zone; only a breakout with significant volume will push the post-earnings revaluation to a new level.In the short term, watch whether the premium on contracts around 273 can be absorbed by the spot market; in the medium term, watch which direction the 260-280 range will break out of; in the medium term, monitor product revenue growth, net income retention rate, and the ratio of equity incentives to revenue.
Would you rather pay a premium for a 34% product revenue growth rate, or wait for it to first prove that GAAP losses are narrowing?
$SNOW #美股 #云计算 #AI数据 #TradFi
Let's look at the surface first.
July 24th was the most recent trading day. Snowflake's US stock opened at $268.90, reached a high of $270.79, a low of $264.00, and closed at $268.06, with a volume of 3.4547 million shares. It has been revaluing since May 27th at $175.26, reaching $284.99 on June 1st, and recently has been fluctuating between $260 and $280, moving from an "earnings gap" to a "high-level verification" phase.
As of midday Beijing time on July 26th, Binance SNOWUSDT TradFi perpetual was trading at $273.62 USDT, up 1.99% in the last 24 hours, with a range of $257.38-$275.74. The contract price and the NYSE spot price should be considered separately: it's about $5.56 higher than the recent spot closing price, indicating that funds were betting ahead over the weekend, but whether this premium will hold depends on confirmation from spot transactions on the next trading day.
The first contradiction is the renewed acceleration in growth, which has also raised the valuation threshold. Snowflake's total revenue for the first fiscal quarter ending April 30 was $1.39 billion, a year-over-year increase of 33%; product revenue was $1.33 billion, an increase of 34%. The company gave guidance of $1.415 billion to $1.42 billion for product revenue in the second fiscal quarter, still corresponding to about 30% growth. Business hasn't slowed down, but the stock price has already risen significantly since the end of May, and another "meeting expectations" might not be enough.
The second contradiction is that while order visibility is strong, revenue recognition depends on actual customer consumption. Remaining fulfillment obligations are $9.12 billion, a year-over-year increase of 38%; net revenue retention rate is 126%, and there are 779 customers with annual product revenue exceeding $1 million. The contract pool is thickening, but Snowflake operates on a consumption-based billing model. Customer contracts don't guarantee immediate usage within the quarter. The key to growth quality lies in whether AI workloads can consistently translate into query and storage consumption.
The third contradiction is that while non-GAAP efficiency is improving, GAAP profits still have a shortfall. The company's second-quarter non-GAAP operating profit margin guidance is 12.5%, but the first-quarter GAAP net loss was $296 million; during the same period, stock-based compensation was $402 million, with unrecognized stock-based compensation costs of approximately $3.8 billion. High growth can absorb the dilution, but it cannot be ignored.
The key level to watch is initially $264-$260; holding this level indicates the high-level consolidation remains intact. The next support level is $250. The $279-$285 area represents a previous high-density zone; only a breakout with significant volume will push the post-earnings revaluation to a new level.In the short term, watch whether the premium on contracts around 273 can be absorbed by the spot market; in the medium term, watch which direction the 260-280 range will break out of; in the medium term, monitor product revenue growth, net income retention rate, and the ratio of equity incentives to revenue.
Would you rather pay a premium for a 34% product revenue growth rate, or wait for it to first prove that GAAP losses are narrowing?
$SNOW #美股 #云计算 #AI数据 #TradFi