This war has been going on for 5 months without end, and Trump is getting anxious
He originally thought, “It would be over in a few weeks.” Now not only can’t it be stopped, it has dragged into its fifth month. He’s becoming “increasingly impatient.”
“Revenge mode” has been activated
The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, reports that during an Oval Office meeting, Trump directly used profanity toward Iran’s leadership. A senior official said Trump has entered “revenge mode,” believing Iran “only understands force.” Aside from continuing airstrikes, he “doesn’t think there are many good options to choose from.” Trump himself also signaled: “I’m considering a large-scale attack that will be more intense than ever before.”
Three mountains pressing down on him
First, the United States itself has started bleeding. Since the fighting began at the end of February, 18 U.S. service members have been killed. Trump had planned to fight a “manageable, limited war,” but ended up losing 18 lives first.
Second, oil prices have surged to the point where ordinary people can’t take it anymore. Brent crude broke $100 per barrel this week, and U.S. gasoline prices have risen in tandem. Inside the White House, officials have already been meeting to discuss how to lower oil prices ahead of the midterm elections. The longer the war drags on, the higher oil prices go—and the more dangerous it becomes for votes.
Third, Iran simply isn’t buying it. Iran has just rejected the latest ceasefire proposal submitted through the Iraqi prime minister, citing that—this proposal “does not address the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz.” The two sides’ core disagreement has yet to be resolved, and the war has no exit.
What does this mean for the market?
Trump is now stuck between retreat and escalation—withdrawal would be a political disaster, while escalating carries even greater risk. Brent has broken above $100. Trump has imposed tariffs on 60 economic entities, and the combined pressure is pushing up inflation expectations. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to 4.66%, and risk assets remain under pressure.
In the near term, this war isn’t likely to stop, oil prices are hard to see falling, and risk assets are hard to see rising. Those who want to go long should wait for clear signals; those who want to short, don’t bet on a top at $100 oil prices.
#美军向闯伊朗封锁油轮开火 #布伦特原油突破100美元
$BTC $CL $SNDK
He originally thought, “It would be over in a few weeks.” Now not only can’t it be stopped, it has dragged into its fifth month. He’s becoming “increasingly impatient.”
“Revenge mode” has been activated
The Wall Street Journal, citing informed sources, reports that during an Oval Office meeting, Trump directly used profanity toward Iran’s leadership. A senior official said Trump has entered “revenge mode,” believing Iran “only understands force.” Aside from continuing airstrikes, he “doesn’t think there are many good options to choose from.” Trump himself also signaled: “I’m considering a large-scale attack that will be more intense than ever before.”
Three mountains pressing down on him
First, the United States itself has started bleeding. Since the fighting began at the end of February, 18 U.S. service members have been killed. Trump had planned to fight a “manageable, limited war,” but ended up losing 18 lives first.
Second, oil prices have surged to the point where ordinary people can’t take it anymore. Brent crude broke $100 per barrel this week, and U.S. gasoline prices have risen in tandem. Inside the White House, officials have already been meeting to discuss how to lower oil prices ahead of the midterm elections. The longer the war drags on, the higher oil prices go—and the more dangerous it becomes for votes.
Third, Iran simply isn’t buying it. Iran has just rejected the latest ceasefire proposal submitted through the Iraqi prime minister, citing that—this proposal “does not address the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz.” The two sides’ core disagreement has yet to be resolved, and the war has no exit.
What does this mean for the market?
Trump is now stuck between retreat and escalation—withdrawal would be a political disaster, while escalating carries even greater risk. Brent has broken above $100. Trump has imposed tariffs on 60 economic entities, and the combined pressure is pushing up inflation expectations. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to 4.66%, and risk assets remain under pressure.
In the near term, this war isn’t likely to stop, oil prices are hard to see falling, and risk assets are hard to see rising. Those who want to go long should wait for clear signals; those who want to short, don’t bet on a top at $100 oil prices.
#美军向闯伊朗封锁油轮开火 #布伦特原油突破100美元
$BTC $CL $SNDK