#加密市场观察 1.9 King of the Alliance on Gold Market · Gold Midday Review: Non-Farm Data Approaching, Gold Faces the Real Test
On January 9, the U.S. December 2025 Non-Farm Employment data will be released, serving as the market's 'deciding factor' that directly influences investors' views on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. The market generally expects 60,000 new jobs added in December, a figure that needs to be interpreted in conjunction with prior labor market data.
Previous leading indicators have already signaled a cooling trend: ADP private sector job additions reached 41,000, halting the decline seen in November but falling short of the 48,000 market expectation, with job growth concentrated in the service sector while the goods-producing industries experienced job losses; job openings data continue to decline, indicating weakening hiring demand from companies; although initial jobless claims remained low at 199,000, the four-week moving average has risen to 218,750, gradually forming a more relaxed labor market environment.
Although gold prices are currently rising, I remain cautious about the risk of a short-term crash: this adjustment cycle is relatively brief, with an additional 12 to 15 billion U.S. dollars in long positions in gold and silver yet to be sold off; funds tracking indices passively follow weights without assessing market conditions, and with weak fundamental support, a sudden sell-off could easily trigger a stampede. Long-term traders with short-term bullish positions must avoid the weight adjustment window before January 15.
From a technical perspective, the previous resistance level at $4,500 is a key barrier—consider shorting when the rebound approaches; the first touch of the trendline support can be a potential opportunity for short-term long positions. Tonight's non-farm data release requires caution against market manipulation based on the data; firmly avoid chasing prices above $4,500 unless a breakout occurs. If the European session weakens, consider adding short positions during a rebound before the U.S. session.
Specific Trading Strategy
Long positions: Enter lightly at the 4440–4445 range, add to the position on a pullback to 4415–4423, place stop-loss near 4403, target 4470–4475, and aim for 4500–4510 if the level breaks.
On January 9, the U.S. December 2025 Non-Farm Employment data will be released, serving as the market's 'deciding factor' that directly influences investors' views on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. The market generally expects 60,000 new jobs added in December, a figure that needs to be interpreted in conjunction with prior labor market data.
Previous leading indicators have already signaled a cooling trend: ADP private sector job additions reached 41,000, halting the decline seen in November but falling short of the 48,000 market expectation, with job growth concentrated in the service sector while the goods-producing industries experienced job losses; job openings data continue to decline, indicating weakening hiring demand from companies; although initial jobless claims remained low at 199,000, the four-week moving average has risen to 218,750, gradually forming a more relaxed labor market environment.
Although gold prices are currently rising, I remain cautious about the risk of a short-term crash: this adjustment cycle is relatively brief, with an additional 12 to 15 billion U.S. dollars in long positions in gold and silver yet to be sold off; funds tracking indices passively follow weights without assessing market conditions, and with weak fundamental support, a sudden sell-off could easily trigger a stampede. Long-term traders with short-term bullish positions must avoid the weight adjustment window before January 15.
From a technical perspective, the previous resistance level at $4,500 is a key barrier—consider shorting when the rebound approaches; the first touch of the trendline support can be a potential opportunity for short-term long positions. Tonight's non-farm data release requires caution against market manipulation based on the data; firmly avoid chasing prices above $4,500 unless a breakout occurs. If the European session weakens, consider adding short positions during a rebound before the U.S. session.
Specific Trading Strategy
Long positions: Enter lightly at the 4440–4445 range, add to the position on a pullback to 4415–4423, place stop-loss near 4403, target 4470–4475, and aim for 4500–4510 if the level breaks.