At 21:30 tonight, the U.S. December non-farm employment report will be released, marking the first major data release of the year. The market currently expects a gain of 60,000 jobs, slightly revised down from the previous 64,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.6% to 4.5%. However, the earlier ADP employment data showed only a 41,000 increase, far below market expectations, signaling a weakening labor market in advance. This has made the "data gap" in this non-farm report the key variable that could trigger market movements.
From a logical perspective, if the non-farm data falls short of expectations—especially if job gains dip below 50,000 or the unemployment rate rebounds—the probability of a Fed rate cut in March will rise further. The U.S. dollar index is likely to face downward pressure, while gold could surge. Conversely, if the data significantly exceeds expectations, the rate cut outlook will be suppressed, and gold may see a short-term pullback, while the dollar gains strength.
Besides gold, cryptocurrencies also need close attention during this non-farm release. Here’s a swing short strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum tonight:
• Bitcoin: Place short positions near the 91,500–92,000 range, with the first target at 89,600. If broken, aim for 87,800 as the next support level.
• Ethereum: Short simultaneously in the 3,160–3,190 range, targeting the 3,100 level first. If broken, look toward the 3,000 psychological level.
Finally, a reminder for retail investors: the market is likely to remain range-bound before the data release. Avoid blindly betting on a direction ahead of time. Wait for the data to come out, then follow the trend. Also, always set strict stop-losses—especially in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile. Maintain your risk control lines to avoid significant losses from sudden market moves.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
From a logical perspective, if the non-farm data falls short of expectations—especially if job gains dip below 50,000 or the unemployment rate rebounds—the probability of a Fed rate cut in March will rise further. The U.S. dollar index is likely to face downward pressure, while gold could surge. Conversely, if the data significantly exceeds expectations, the rate cut outlook will be suppressed, and gold may see a short-term pullback, while the dollar gains strength.
Besides gold, cryptocurrencies also need close attention during this non-farm release. Here’s a swing short strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum tonight:
• Bitcoin: Place short positions near the 91,500–92,000 range, with the first target at 89,600. If broken, aim for 87,800 as the next support level.
• Ethereum: Short simultaneously in the 3,160–3,190 range, targeting the 3,100 level first. If broken, look toward the 3,000 psychological level.
Finally, a reminder for retail investors: the market is likely to remain range-bound before the data release. Avoid blindly betting on a direction ahead of time. Wait for the data to come out, then follow the trend. Also, always set strict stop-losses—especially in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile. Maintain your risk control lines to avoid significant losses from sudden market moves.
$BTC $ETH $SOL