$1,500 for $SNDK —are you brave enough to bottom-fish?
First, the surface: Tech stocks are broadly pulling back, and the memory sector is bleeding.
Today it gapped down from 1610, accelerated lower during the session by nearly 10%, and bottomed around 1450. Volume surged—classic profit-taking plus stop-loss selling. The uptrend channel’s lower bound has already been broken. A head-and-shoulders pattern is faintly forming, the RSI has crashed from overbought levels. Don’t catch falling knives in the short term, but don’t lose your faith in the medium term.
First thing: AI storage demand is real—but the market is questioning how long the story can be told.
SanDisk is among the world’s top five NAND flash suppliers. With AI data centers driving explosive demand for high-capacity, high-durability flash, results have been taken to the ceiling. Q3 revenue nearly doubled to $5.95 billion, gross margin surged to over 70%, and the company has signed multi-year supply agreements locking in $42 billion in revenue. Sounds powerful? But the market doesn’t care right now.
Second thing: The Aug 5 earnings report—where heaven or hell begins.
Market expectations for Q4 EPS are as high as 33+. If guidance again beats expectations, you get a straight V-shaped rebound with a target of 1800–2000. If it disappoints, it could sell off further to 1200.
Same script: from late June, it surged from 1325 to above 1600 in just two weeks. Retail cut losses around 1350, while institutions were distributing around 1600—perfect harvesting.
Third thing: The fundamentals haven’t changed; what changes is your level of panic.
With supply agreements locking in $42 billion, and earnings growth exploding, the AI storage thesis hasn’t broken. This pullback is mainly because “overall tech valuations are still too high + profit taking,” not because the company’s fundamentals are deteriorating.
From 40 to 2350, then a 30% pullback to 1600—this is a “healthy correction.” From 1600 down to 1450, that’s “panic oversold.”
A real bear market is when fundamentals collapse and the industry logic breaks—while SNDK still has gross margin at 70%, orders lined up through 2027, and AI inference demand still accelerating.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 1550–1600 → 1700–1800
Support below: 1450 → 1350–1380 → 1230–1300
For short-term traders:
If it bounces back into 1550–1600 but stalls and volume isn’t enough, try a small short position. Stop-loss: 1620–1650. Target: 1400–1450. If it breaks below 1450 with heavy volume, follow the trend and look at 1350.
For swing players:
If you see a long lower wick plus contracting volume stabilization around 1350, go long with a light position. Stop-loss: below 1300. Target: 1800–2000.
For long-term believers:
Wait for the Aug 5 earnings report to land. If it beats expectations and raises guidance, add on from the right-hand side and target 2000+. If it misses, wait for the 1200 range and build in batches. The AI storage thesis hasn’t broken—look for a 3-year target of 3000+.
First, the surface: Tech stocks are broadly pulling back, and the memory sector is bleeding.
Today it gapped down from 1610, accelerated lower during the session by nearly 10%, and bottomed around 1450. Volume surged—classic profit-taking plus stop-loss selling. The uptrend channel’s lower bound has already been broken. A head-and-shoulders pattern is faintly forming, the RSI has crashed from overbought levels. Don’t catch falling knives in the short term, but don’t lose your faith in the medium term.
First thing: AI storage demand is real—but the market is questioning how long the story can be told.
SanDisk is among the world’s top five NAND flash suppliers. With AI data centers driving explosive demand for high-capacity, high-durability flash, results have been taken to the ceiling. Q3 revenue nearly doubled to $5.95 billion, gross margin surged to over 70%, and the company has signed multi-year supply agreements locking in $42 billion in revenue. Sounds powerful? But the market doesn’t care right now.
Second thing: The Aug 5 earnings report—where heaven or hell begins.
Market expectations for Q4 EPS are as high as 33+. If guidance again beats expectations, you get a straight V-shaped rebound with a target of 1800–2000. If it disappoints, it could sell off further to 1200.
Same script: from late June, it surged from 1325 to above 1600 in just two weeks. Retail cut losses around 1350, while institutions were distributing around 1600—perfect harvesting.
Third thing: The fundamentals haven’t changed; what changes is your level of panic.
With supply agreements locking in $42 billion, and earnings growth exploding, the AI storage thesis hasn’t broken. This pullback is mainly because “overall tech valuations are still too high + profit taking,” not because the company’s fundamentals are deteriorating.
From 40 to 2350, then a 30% pullback to 1600—this is a “healthy correction.” From 1600 down to 1450, that’s “panic oversold.”
A real bear market is when fundamentals collapse and the industry logic breaks—while SNDK still has gross margin at 70%, orders lined up through 2027, and AI inference demand still accelerating.
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 1550–1600 → 1700–1800
Support below: 1450 → 1350–1380 → 1230–1300
For short-term traders:
If it bounces back into 1550–1600 but stalls and volume isn’t enough, try a small short position. Stop-loss: 1620–1650. Target: 1400–1450. If it breaks below 1450 with heavy volume, follow the trend and look at 1350.
For swing players:
If you see a long lower wick plus contracting volume stabilization around 1350, go long with a light position. Stop-loss: below 1300. Target: 1800–2000.
For long-term believers:
Wait for the Aug 5 earnings report to land. If it beats expectations and raises guidance, add on from the right-hand side and target 2000+. If it misses, wait for the 1200 range and build in batches. The AI storage thesis hasn’t broken—look for a 3-year target of 3000+.