🌏 Key themes tonight
With a semiconductor crash in Asia on top of the restart of the Iran conflict, all three main threads point to risk-off.
• KOSPI plunges 5% intraday (6737 points); Samsung/SK Hynix both fall more than 6%. The Korean Exchange suspends the automated trading program for the startup board. Hang Seng Tech -2%, China A-shares CSI 300 -1%.
• Trump says Iran has refused a ceasefire and plans to restart large-scale war against Iran (previously claimed it had sunk 159 Iranian warships).
• The U.S. imposes 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 economies.
🌍 Global situation / Commodities / FX
• Oil prices continue to rise: WTI at $92 (+4%), Brent above $100, and the Strait of Hormuz premium has not receded.
• But gold is down to $4,028 (−2.5%), silver −4.5%, palladium −6%—precious metals are getting hit across the board: war is being priced as 【inflation→rate hikes】 rather than a safe-haven demand. Gold and BTC fall in the same direction—don’t expect war to be bullish for BTC.
• The yen weakens versus the U.S. dollar to a 40-year low; the Bank of Japan next week is expected to keep its rate-hike guidance; the won has risen to the highest level since May at 1463.
📉 BTC technicals (current 65,125 / 24h −0.9%, not yet closed)
• On the 1D chart, price is still above MA20 at 64,125 / MA50 at 63,080. The bear rebound structure hasn’t broken yet, and the MACD histogram is converging.
• 4H MACD bearish histogram expands (bars −386) + breaks below MA20 at 65,764 with declining volume; KDJ J at 13 is oversold.
• 1H just formed a bullish golden cross (histogram +77) and has stabilized, but the Bollinger bandwidth has narrowed to 1.85%—a turning-point is near. RSI is 44.8.
• Levels: Above 65,764 (4H MA20) → 66,555; below 64,854 (1H MA200) → 64,606 → 63,844.
📉 ETH technicals (current 1,870 / 24h −2.9%, weaker than BTC)
• The drop is three times BTC’s—leadership effect is fading.
• 4H is bearish with KDJ J at −0.5 deeply oversold. On 1H, shorts dominate; RSI at 29.9 is oversold; MACD histogram is expanding.
• On the 1D chart, price is still above MA20 at 1,835 / MA50 at 1,734, but the MACD histogram is converging (momentum is fading). The 1,956.86 ceiling has failed to break for the sixth time.
• Levels: Above 1,893 (1H middle) → 1,917 (4H MA20); below 1,854 → 1,835 (1D MA20).
🏦 Derivatives
• Liquidations skew heavily toward longs vs shorts: in 24h, BTC longs liquidated about $43.41M vs shorts $5.85M ≈ 7.4:1; ETH longs liquidated about $50.00M vs shorts $5.92M ≈ 8.4:1.
• OI shrinks on both sides: BTC $49.1B (−0.8%/24h), ETH $27.2B (−1.78%) = longs keep cutting positions and exiting.
• Funding rates hug the zero line: BTC +0.008% / −0.003% (longs aren’t crowded; no short-squeeze fuel).
• Spot market is trading at a discount; institutional buy demand is missing (−0.073% / −$48). Fear & Greed Index is 30—fear.
💵 U.S. stocks / Storage
• Storage got bloodbathed during the Asia session: SK Hynix Korean shares −4.8%, Samsung −6%, Hynix ADR −2.3%; Micron perpetual 965 (ran up to 999 early then pulled back).—Tonight, the storage that was “strongest against the trend” is catching up on declines.
• Earnings stocks keep collapsing (perps): Tesla −10.6%, Google −4.6%, MSTR −5.9%, META −2.4%, Marvell −4%—dragging overall risk appetite.
• NVIDIA pushes PC chips and deepens AI manufacturing collaboration with TSMC.
🎯 Overall takeaway + trading suggestions
All three key themes point to risk-off: Asia’s semiconductor slump, wars being priced into rate hikes, and earnings-stock crashes—crypto is likely to stay bearish in line with this, with shorts in control. However, BTC/ETH are both deeply oversold on the 4H+1H charts (J<15, RSI<35; BTC 1H just formed a bullish golden cross). In the short term, a rebound could happen at any time—don’t chase a sell-off.
🔻 BTC: Don’t chase shorts or bottom-pick; if you want to short, wait for a 4H close below 64,606 to follow through (targets 63,844→63,080; stop-loss 65,900≈2×4H ATR).
🔻 ETH: Don’t short at 1,870. If it rebounds toward 1,917/1,956 and then rolls over, short again; stop-loss 1,975.
📦 Storage sector will catch up on declines tonight, but it’s already oversold—don’t short and don’t bottom-pick either.
⚠️ Risks: Tariffs take effect, and Iran’s strike decision is finalized (largest tail risk). Tomorrow 7/24: the initial July Global 7/24 PMI reading + Japan CPI.