#加密市场反弹 Master Teacher Talks About Hot Topics:
I can already predict that today there will be a bunch of people complaining again—'The US stock market hit a new high, but Bitcoin has dropped back to 90K. There's no correlation between the two!' Honestly, hearing this kind of talk over and over is getting annoying.
If you actually watch the chart instead of just reading headlines, you'll notice that the S&P 500 did indeed hit a new high during the session, but how did it close? It crashed all the way down, nearly giving back all the gains from the previous night, and the Nasdaq also quietly corrected.
Pull out a peak from the chart, reach climax, then turn around and question the big pie. The crypto market was never meant to be compared one-to-one with the US stock market; the scale, liquidity, and participant structure are completely different, so larger fluctuations than the US stock market are the norm.
When it falls, it falls quickly and harshly; when it rises, it is also more intense. When Bitcoin led the US stock market to take off on Monday, why didn't you all jump out to say there was strong linkage?
Moreover, this round of rising was not driven by real liquidity, but rather stimulated by information. In simple terms, it's expectations pulling up. When expectations loosen, the price will get hit first, which is normal.
Last night's decline was not because the market suddenly changed its face, but rather that the operations from Chuanzi's side started to stir things up. He seems a bit anxious for election votes, targeting defense contractors and placing limits on institutional home buyers; even PDVSA in Venezuela isn't cooperating much.
These factors combined will inevitably make risk assets shake three times first. Looking at the job vacancy data, it doesn't look good at all; the market has a sense of it. The real shoe to drop is still the non-farm payrolls. Against this backdrop, expecting Bitcoin to be steady as a rock can only be described as dreaming.
Back to the market, I mentioned in my analysis earlier. The range from 80K to 95K is the massive oscillation box formed after the crash on November 21 last year. The previous low volatility could never be maintained, and now the expansion of volatility is just a matter of time.
This wave pulled up to around 94.5K, which is clearly a stop-loss hunt at the upper edge of the range. Those chasing longs and going all in have all been lured out for a ride, and the market's orders are simultaneously showing resistance piled up in chaos; it would be strange if it didn't crash.
The key issue lies below, in the large chunk of liquidity from 83.5K to 86.3K, which still hasn’t been touched. With the market's nature, it would be abnormal not to take a bite. If this stop-loss hunt against 94.5K is confirmed, the price will be absorbed by the liquidity below.
It's almost a textbook-level trend. In simple terms, conducting stop-loss hunts in a range is always one side being swept, while the other side is the target. So from my system's perspective, the current shape actually increases the probability of a stop-loss hunt targeting the previous low of 80.5K.
I would love for it to happen, to thoroughly clean out all the liquidity below. Only in this way, if it really wants to go up later, will the path be smooth; otherwise, there will be hidden dangers along the way. If the price doesn't go down and directly shoots up hard, then the first decent resistance above is 99K.
As for this week, whether you want to admit it or not, the candlestick itself is an adjustment structure. Even if there is good news on Friday, it might spike sharply at the moment, but it is still easy to pull back. If there is bad news, it might instead create a golden pit.
News will only amplify the fluctuations at the time and will not change the path that should be taken. Those who can't understand the structure and only focus on news will most likely end up being rubbed back and forth, cursing the market, the manipulators, and everything, while never blaming their own lack of insight...
Master looks at trends:
After Bitcoin's decline, attention can currently be paid to the long-term support of the 200MA. 90.3 to 90.6K is the core support transaction area, and around 90.5K is the CME gap position, which is a key price level.
The previous upward trend followed by a consolidation range of 91 to 91.6K is a short-term pressure zone. If effectively broken, the probability of a stronger trend increases. The trend is forming a descending wedge structure, which usually sees a short-term trend reversal near the end.
The price has moved down, but the RSI low has risen, forming a bullish divergence, which can only be treated as a technical rebound, not a bottom. If the 200MA is effectively broken, the lower 89.6K is a more cost-effective point in the short term.
Intra-day, the first support of 90.3 to 90.6K can be set as a key support area; the previous high before the rise is at 90.3K, and there is a CME gap near 90.5K.
The first resistance at 91 and 91.6K is the consolidation area from January 4th and 5th, and also a short-term pressure zone. If this range is effectively broken, the probability of a trend reversal will also increase.
The descending wedge is a typical bullish reversal pattern. If the price consolidates above the 200MA, there will also be opportunities for trend pullbacks and subsequent upward movements.
1.8 Master segment pre-set:
Long entry reference: 89600-90600 range, target: 91600-92000
Short entry reference: currently not considered
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them consistently, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market views. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it look like they 'always catch the tops and bottoms,' but in reality, it's all retrospective. A truly worth-following blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and can withstand scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and cherry-picked screenshots. Long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who the thinkers are and who the dreamers are!$BTC $ETH