US Stocks | Knowledge Session | July 23
📊 Earnings Season Survival Guide: When Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla cry wolf, which tree should crypto people hide under?
Today we’ll discuss a topic that US stock players both love and hate—earnings season.
What is earnings season?
Imagine your neighbor Wang runs a hot pot restaurant and has to publish his books once every quarter: revenue, profit, and what he plans to do next quarter. US blue-chip giants like Apple, Google, and Meta are the same. There are four “deadline” periods each year:
- January (Q4 earnings season)
- April (Q1)
- July (Q2), where we are right now
- October (Q3)
Each company has different reporting dates, but April and July are the busiest—over 60% of S&P 500 companies “blow up” around that time.
Why can earnings send the whole market into chaos?
Think of it this way: if the teacher suddenly announces a pop quiz, the whole class’s mood instantly turns tense. Earnings are the pop quiz for US stocks—if you miss expectations, you get punished.
- Apple says sales are slowing: either the supply chain is having issues, or domestic competitors are taking market share
- Microsoft cloud growth is slowing: the AI theme will be questioned, and the entire Nasdaq-100 Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) falls along
- Tesla gross margin is declining: it triggers a chain reaction across the new energy sector
One earnings blow-up can drag down an entire sector.
Key details in practice
1. Beat vs Miss (exceeding vs failing expectations) matters more than the numbers themselves. If numbers rise 5% but expectations were for +10%, that’s a Miss and the stock drops; if numbers fall 3% but expectations were for -8%, that’s a Beat—and the stock can rise. The key is how Wall Street priced it in beforehand.
2. Guidance (forward-looking outlook) matters more than the current-period data. Nobody cares that the boss earned $1 million last quarter; what matters is that they expect $1.5 million next quarter. If the CFO shifts to hedging language, the whole sector drops first out of caution.
3. The earnings call afterward is the main event. Analysts will interrogate the CEO one after another, and every sentence may be amplified in interpretation.
How does this connect to crypto?
This is something many people in the crypto community overlook:
- US tech stocks are a pricing anchor for risk assets. BTC is, in essence, also a risk asset
- On Nasdaq selloff days, BTC almost always falls in tandem
- During earnings season, volatility spikes: VIX rises, option premiums jump, and crypto options get pricier too
- Liquidity tends to move from crypto markets to US stocks before earnings as people take a wait-and-see approach
Today’s data highlights (from the 7/23 perspective)
- S&P 500: 7498; Nasdaq: 25690—both still range near high levels
- SOXX (semiconductors) +0.51%, bucking the trend to flip green; AMD up 10.3% over 5 days—AI hasn’t fully caught fire yet
- COIN -5.53%, MSTR -1.9%—crypto-related stocks are weaker
- BTC 65570, ETH 1918—both consolidating in a narrow range
Trading suggestions
1. Reduce positions to manage risk: earnings season volatility is higher. Friends holding a heavy allocation of crypto spot may consider trimming 20–30% to lock in profits.
2. Don’t use a US stock account to leverage across the weekend: next Monday’s earnings are clustered, and there are landmines both in the pre-market (BMO) and after-hours (AMC).
3. For BTC, follow the Nasdaq’s short-term moves: if Tesla and Google earnings tonight disappoint and pressure the market, BTC will most likely drop too—testing around the 64k area.
4. Watch VIX: today’s VIX at 16.64 is still low. Once earnings-season panic hits, it could surge to 20+ and crypto volatility will expand in sync.
5. Earnings season isn’t the same as a bear market. Historically, after the July earnings season, US stocks have tended to rise on average in Q3–Q4—panic can actually be a buying point.
Core principle
Earnings season is essentially “known uncertainty”—we know what will happen, but we don’t know the result. In times like this, controlling position size matters more than guessing direction. Protect your profits—being up 10% more isn’t as important.
#知识局 #财报季 #BTC
📊 Earnings Season Survival Guide: When Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla cry wolf, which tree should crypto people hide under?
Today we’ll discuss a topic that US stock players both love and hate—earnings season.
What is earnings season?
Imagine your neighbor Wang runs a hot pot restaurant and has to publish his books once every quarter: revenue, profit, and what he plans to do next quarter. US blue-chip giants like Apple, Google, and Meta are the same. There are four “deadline” periods each year:
- January (Q4 earnings season)
- April (Q1)
- July (Q2), where we are right now
- October (Q3)
Each company has different reporting dates, but April and July are the busiest—over 60% of S&P 500 companies “blow up” around that time.
Why can earnings send the whole market into chaos?
Think of it this way: if the teacher suddenly announces a pop quiz, the whole class’s mood instantly turns tense. Earnings are the pop quiz for US stocks—if you miss expectations, you get punished.
- Apple says sales are slowing: either the supply chain is having issues, or domestic competitors are taking market share
- Microsoft cloud growth is slowing: the AI theme will be questioned, and the entire Nasdaq-100 Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) falls along
- Tesla gross margin is declining: it triggers a chain reaction across the new energy sector
One earnings blow-up can drag down an entire sector.
Key details in practice
1. Beat vs Miss (exceeding vs failing expectations) matters more than the numbers themselves. If numbers rise 5% but expectations were for +10%, that’s a Miss and the stock drops; if numbers fall 3% but expectations were for -8%, that’s a Beat—and the stock can rise. The key is how Wall Street priced it in beforehand.
2. Guidance (forward-looking outlook) matters more than the current-period data. Nobody cares that the boss earned $1 million last quarter; what matters is that they expect $1.5 million next quarter. If the CFO shifts to hedging language, the whole sector drops first out of caution.
3. The earnings call afterward is the main event. Analysts will interrogate the CEO one after another, and every sentence may be amplified in interpretation.
How does this connect to crypto?
This is something many people in the crypto community overlook:
- US tech stocks are a pricing anchor for risk assets. BTC is, in essence, also a risk asset
- On Nasdaq selloff days, BTC almost always falls in tandem
- During earnings season, volatility spikes: VIX rises, option premiums jump, and crypto options get pricier too
- Liquidity tends to move from crypto markets to US stocks before earnings as people take a wait-and-see approach
Today’s data highlights (from the 7/23 perspective)
- S&P 500: 7498; Nasdaq: 25690—both still range near high levels
- SOXX (semiconductors) +0.51%, bucking the trend to flip green; AMD up 10.3% over 5 days—AI hasn’t fully caught fire yet
- COIN -5.53%, MSTR -1.9%—crypto-related stocks are weaker
- BTC 65570, ETH 1918—both consolidating in a narrow range
Trading suggestions
1. Reduce positions to manage risk: earnings season volatility is higher. Friends holding a heavy allocation of crypto spot may consider trimming 20–30% to lock in profits.
2. Don’t use a US stock account to leverage across the weekend: next Monday’s earnings are clustered, and there are landmines both in the pre-market (BMO) and after-hours (AMC).
3. For BTC, follow the Nasdaq’s short-term moves: if Tesla and Google earnings tonight disappoint and pressure the market, BTC will most likely drop too—testing around the 64k area.
4. Watch VIX: today’s VIX at 16.64 is still low. Once earnings-season panic hits, it could surge to 20+ and crypto volatility will expand in sync.
5. Earnings season isn’t the same as a bear market. Historically, after the July earnings season, US stocks have tended to rise on average in Q3–Q4—panic can actually be a buying point.
Core principle
Earnings season is essentially “known uncertainty”—we know what will happen, but we don’t know the result. In times like this, controlling position size matters more than guessing direction. Protect your profits—being up 10% more isn’t as important.
#知识局 #财报季 #BTC