Is Bitcoin becoming a “stamp asset”? A piece of contrarian thinking from Lao Jin.

Recently, many people have noticed a phenomenon: the price of Bitcoin is getting higher and higher, but the volatility is getting smaller and smaller.

Many people attribute the cause to the Federal Reserve, interest-rate cut expectations, ETFs, and so on. These certainly have an impact. But in my view, these are just appearances. The deeper change is that Bitcoin’s market characteristics are changing.

First, money is leaving the crypto market—not leaving risk markets.

In the past few years, as long as global liquidity was loose, the crypto market was often the first to rise and the market with the biggest gains.

But this time, it isn’t.

Asia markets are weakening, while U.S. stocks keep hitting new highs. A large amount of capital is still willing to take risks, but they choose AI and tech stocks rather than cryptocurrencies.

What’s more worth paying attention to is that exchanges that used to rely on Bitcoin are also starting to roll out large-scale operations for U.S. stock trading.

Platforms don’t lie.

Wherever there is incremental capital, they will go there.

When more and more exchanges shift their focus to traditional financial markets, it also indicates that the crypto world is entering a new phase.

Second, Bitcoin is becoming more and more like a “store-of-value asset.”

Peng Zhao once said: “Bitcoin is like the internet—people won’t abandon the internet.”

I agree with this statement.

But the internet’s development relies on continuously creating value—and today’s Bitcoin is more like an asset whose value discovery has already been completed.

It remains scarce—and it still has value.

But it’s increasingly like collectibles such as gold, red wine, and postage stamps.

Value still exists, but liquidity is declining.

Especially after ETFs, institutions, and long-term holders keep increasing, more and more Bitcoin gets locked up; the amount of chips genuinely circulating in the market is actually getting smaller.

Third, Bitcoin’s greatest value actually comes from faith.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity remains a mystery to this day.

The large amount of Bitcoin he holds has never circulated.

Precisely because nothing has moved, this belief has always existed.

If one day these chips start entering the market, it won’t only affect the price—it’s more likely to shape the market’s overall psychological expectations.

So, Bitcoin’s value isn’t just technical—it’s consensus.

And any asset built on consensus needs people to keep believing in it and keep having capital involved.

Fourth, why is volatility getting smaller and smaller?

I think there are mainly three reasons:

First, capital is continuously being diverted to other assets such as U.S. stocks.

Second, institutional holdings are getting higher and higher, and the market’s trading frequency is declining.

Third, and most importantly—Bitcoin is losing the allure of “get rich overnight” in the crypto world.

In the past, a small-cap altcoin could multiply by dozens in a few days, and a cycle could change one’s fate.

These stories keep attracting new money.

And now, stories like that are becoming fewer and fewer, so naturally there are fewer newcomers.

With no new inflows, high volatility will gradually become less and less.

My view

I’ve always believed that the range around $70,000 to $90,000 is where Bitcoin has the most trading value.

Because there’s volatility, there’s opportunity.

When the price keeps getting higher and volatility keeps dropping, it starts to resemble an allocation asset rather than a trading asset.

So, in the long run, I still stay cautious.

In the short to mid term, you can trade with the trend—go long on pullbacks and short on rallies, and respect the trend. But in the long run, I still maintain a bearish bias. $50,000 and even $40,000 are still important areas worth watching in the future.

Of course, this is just a thought exercise by an old gold veteran—it doesn’t mean it will definitely be like this in the future.

The market never runs according to anyone’s script.

But real trading isn’t about predicting the future—it’s about, when the market changes, seeing the change first, acknowledging it, and adapting to it.

Do you think Bitcoin will continue to become a global asset, or will it gradually turn into a kind of “digital stamp”? Let’s discuss it in the comments.#比特币