The recovery of Bitcoin (BTC) in early 2026 may not last, as new data points to an increasing potential for selling pressure. Traders with long positions may need to assess opposing conditions to reduce risks.

On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin whales are intensifying their activities on exchanges. This movement becomes even riskier in a low-volume environment.

Proportion of large investors entering Bitcoin surges in January

One of the most concerning signs is the ratio of whales across all exchanges (EMA14), which has reached its highest level in ten months.

This indicator shows the proportion of the ten largest flows relative to the total inflows into exchanges. High values signal intense platform usage by large investors.

Although Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline due to demand for DATs and ETFs, a sudden spike in this index may be an early warning sign. This suggests that BTC balances on platforms could start rising again.

"This scenario occurs at the same time that Bitcoin's price attempts to recover after a corrective phase. The pattern suggests a possible strategy by whales to take advantage of buying liquidity and exit positions, using the current market as an exit liquidity," analyzed CryptoOnchain, a CryptoQuant expert, in a comment.

Moreover, the increasingly fragile market liquidity increases the likelihood of abrupt price movements and higher volatility.

According to a post by Glassnode on X, Bitcoin and altcoin spot trading volume dropped to its lowest level since November 2023.

"This weakened demand contrasts with the recent market highs. The picture highlights tighter liquidity conditions behind the price strength," Glassnode reported.

In an environment of limited liquidity, reduced buying pressure is already enough to push prices higher. Conversely, moderate selling pressure can trigger sharp declines.

If whales present on exchanges begin selling, as suggested, combined with restricted liquidity, Bitcoin's rise above 6% and the 10% increase in altcoin market capitalization could be briefly interrupted.

Analyst Willy Woo also noted a sharp decline in Bitcoin's transaction fees, describing the situation as a "ghost city".

Mempool and transaction fee charts show on-chain activity at historically low levels. Both indicators recorded significant declines, indicating reduced network movement. The drop in activity implies lower inflows and outflows, making the market less dynamic.

Woo projects a possible short-term rise in January, with liquidity reaching a local bottom. However, the outlook for longer periods remains negative due to low real activity.

In the short term, some experts point out that Bitcoin may correct to the US$90,000 and US$88,500 regions. These levels also coincide with a recently formed gap on the CME.