Bitcoin [BTC] is witnessing potentially tradable supply tightening, as the miners’ OTC balances fall sharply and the inflow of BTC to exchanges also declines.
This development suggests direct selling pressure may be easing, while the price of Bitcoin continues to rise compared with the earlier period. If demand remains steady, thinner liquidity could make BTC price fluctuations more sensitive in the coming quarters.
Bitcoin miner OTC balance drops by nearly 72%
Bitcoin has fewer coins available for large trades via miners’ OTC. From November 2021 to now, holdings have fallen from 500,000 BTC to 139,700 BTC.
This drop is roughly equivalent to nearly 72%, showing that miners have gradually withdrawn inventory over time but have not significantly re-accumulated it after the 2024 halving. As a result, OTC supply has become tighter.
Meanwhile, the flow of BTC from miners to exchanges is also decreasing, indicating that the number of coins likely to be sold in the spot market is getting smaller. This is a sign that the supply structure is tightening.
Withdrawals from exchanges indicate reduced sell-side liquidity
Bitcoin liquidity is tightening not only in OTC but also on centralized exchanges. On July 20, Bitcoin recorded a 686 million USD net inflow/outflow around exchanges, with Binance leading at 570 million USD net outflow.
Bybit contributed 65 million USD, Coinbase 48 million USD, and HTX nearly 3 million USD. This allocation suggests a broader trend of withdrawals happening across the board rather than an isolated case.
When BTC leaves exchange wallets, the amount of coins ready to be sold immediately in the spot market continues to decline. Together with OTC drying up, this may cause the market to react more strongly if buying demand increases.
Timing / Index Value Meaning OTC balance of miners for Nov 2021 500,000 BTC Initial milestone before the gradual decline OTC balance of current miners 139,700 BTC Source of coins for large trades has shrunk Decrease Nearly 72% Indicates miners’ inventory has been strongly withdrawn Exchange Netflows on 20/7 686 million USD Reflects a large BTC flow through exchanges; Binance net outflow 570 million USD Largest withdrawal since April Bybit net outflow 65 million USD Contributes to the trend of withdrawing from Coinbase; Coinbase net outflow 48 million USD Continues to reduce coins available for trading HTX net outflow Nearly 3 million USD Small contribution but still part of the same trend
Bitcoin long-term still shows no strong profit-taking pressure
Long-term investors still show no signs of strong selling of old BTC holdings. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index, a measure of how much aged coins are put back into circulation, remains flat at 16.4 million.
The earlier short-term rallies did not turn into a prolonged distribution wave, indicating that most long-term holdings remain untouched. The available data does not yet show that selling pressure from this group is increasing clearly.
As old coins continue to remain inactive, the price discovery process will depend more on fresh spot demand. In other words, the market needs sufficiently strong capital inflows to absorb an ever-smaller portion of supply.
Summary
Bitcoin is facing a tighter supply market—from miners’ OTC to withdrawals from exchanges, and signals of accumulation from long-term holders. In that context, future price volatility may depend more on actual buying power in the market.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/tho-dao-btc-ban-otc-72-bien-dong/
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