The past couple of days have indeed been very strong for Bitcoin’s price action. The short-term long structure has reappeared, and our 65,000 short order was stopped out as well. The market’s reaction to this escalation in the geopolitical conflict is that the bears are comparatively weak. Even though the fighting is in full swing, the chart doesn’t move at all—instead, Iran’s statement yesterday about a 10-day ceasefire triggered a round of a strong rally.
From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin does still have the possibility to push higher, but you must not ignore the macro-level pressure. Many people see this move and start fantasizing about reaching 70,000. I believe that in the near term, that’s very unrealistic. The current macro main theme is still the U.S.-Iran situation: the U.S. military launches another round of strikes on targets related to the Strait of Hormuz. Risk is spilling over into oil prices, inflation pressure is spreading, and the Federal Reserve continues to face pressure to raise rates—which is bearish for all anti-fiat assets.
Let me share my view: my mid-term short setup remains unchanged, because the macro-level pressure has been there the whole time—it’s just that the current price action hasn’t reflected it yet. Also, I believe this wave of bullish sentiment will be released and end within a short period, meaning that in the near term both “big pie” and “small pie” will top out. Next, watch how price breaks through 67,000. If funds can’t sustain strength at this level, then that will be our new short entry zone. #伊朗总统称与美国全面开战
From a short-term perspective, Bitcoin does still have the possibility to push higher, but you must not ignore the macro-level pressure. Many people see this move and start fantasizing about reaching 70,000. I believe that in the near term, that’s very unrealistic. The current macro main theme is still the U.S.-Iran situation: the U.S. military launches another round of strikes on targets related to the Strait of Hormuz. Risk is spilling over into oil prices, inflation pressure is spreading, and the Federal Reserve continues to face pressure to raise rates—which is bearish for all anti-fiat assets.
Let me share my view: my mid-term short setup remains unchanged, because the macro-level pressure has been there the whole time—it’s just that the current price action hasn’t reflected it yet. Also, I believe this wave of bullish sentiment will be released and end within a short period, meaning that in the near term both “big pie” and “small pie” will top out. Next, watch how price breaks through 67,000. If funds can’t sustain strength at this level, then that will be our new short entry zone. #伊朗总统称与美国全面开战