On my way home from work at night, passing by a mall, the first thing to light up wasn’t the storefront display—it was the queue-number screen in the dining area.
On one side are young people outside a milk tea shop. On the other side are couples with children eating a meal. Some people are carrying shopping bags from the supermarket—small bags, but packed quite well. Others have just come out of the cinema, discussing not ticket prices, but whether “these two hours were pretty worth it.”
This is the most interesting part of consumption in the first half of this year: people are still buying things, but they’re more willing to spend money on a meal, a movie, a trip out, or an afternoon of relaxation.
Even the way people describe these feelings is very straightforward. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of consumer goods and services increased by 2.7% year on year; within that, retail sales of services grew by 5.3%, which was 4.2 percentage points faster than retail sales of goods. Retail sales of goods totaled 2204.67 billion yuan, up 1.1% year on year; catering revenue was 282.55 billion yuan, up 2.8%; online retail sales of services grew by 6.0%. From the household perspective, in the first half of the year, per capita consumption expenditure for residents across the country was 14,836 yuan, nominally up 3.7% and in real terms up 2.7%; spending on education, culture, and entertainment increased by 4.9%.
Putting these numbers together can’t be explained away with a simple “consumption is doing well.”
More precisely, the “buzz” of consumption has just moved locations.
[I. It’s not that everyone isn’t spending—it’s that they’re more selective]
Over the past two years, many people share a common feeling: when buying big-ticket items, they think about it a bit longer; when buying a pile of small things that can be optional, they’re not as impulsive as before.
But by the weekend, meals still have to be eaten, friends still need to be seen, and kids still need to be taken out. Even older people at home want a change of scenery to get some fresh air. People aren’t machines, and life can’t be reduced to just a ledger.
So it isn’t strange that service consumption heats up first.
When people buy services, it’s often not a single item—it’s a period of time. For dining, you pay for not having to cook, not having to wash dishes, and sitting down to have a proper conversation; for culture and entertainment, you pay to step away from work and household chores. As education and culture-entertainment spending grows, behind it may be a child’s lesson, an exhibition, a show, or it could be a rare weekend when a family finally lines up on the same opinions.
This kind of money makes you feel a little heartache when you spend it, but it’s also easier to be persuaded.
Because it corresponds to feelings.
Goods consumption is more like the basic staples at home—rice, flour, oil, and salt; stability is the chassis. Retail sales of goods totaled 220,467 billion yuan, up 1.1% year on year. The number doesn’t explode, but it shows that the basic foundation is still there. If the refrigerator breaks, it needs repair; if clothes wear out, they need replacing; if your phone isn’t working well, someone will consider upgrading. People just aren’t so easily pushed along by a few words like “new model,” “upgrade,” or “limited time.”
In the past, consumption was like a gust of wind: new items appeared on shelves and wallets moved. Now it’s more like a checklist: buy what needs to be bought; wait on what can wait. Only what’s genuinely useful, genuinely comfortable, and genuinely improves daily life is worth taking out the money.
This isn’t as simple as a downgrade in consumption.
It means consumption has gotten smarter.
[II. Service consumption is booming—the “value you can feel” is booming]
Service consumption moves faster than goods. The most worth pondering isn’t the speed itself, but why it can run.
When you buy a physical product and take it home, its value is there in front of you. A pot, an air conditioner, a piece of clothing—whether it’s worth it often depends on long-term use to judge. But services are different: their feedback comes quickly.
Whether the food is good is known right then.
Whether a movie is worth it is known two hours later.
Whether going out is tiring or whether you’re happy is known when you come home at night.
Today’s consumers care increasingly about this kind of “instant return.” It’s not only about getting a bargain, and it’s not about chasing luxury for status. It boils down to a very plain question: after I’ve spent this money, has my life gotten a little better?
Catering revenue was 28,255 billion yuan, up 2.8%—and that carries exactly this meaning.
Catering is never just about eating. In many cities, the dining table takes on too much: smoothing relationships among coworkers, reconnecting friends, and catching up on a week of things not said among family members. Ordering delivery saves time; going out to eat as a family is to temporarily put down the fatigue in the kitchen.
The resilience of service consumption is hidden in these small scenarios.
It may not be grand, but it’s real.
Online service retail sales also grew by 6.0%, worth watching. People are already familiar with buying physical goods online; buying services online means consumption has moved one step further in its structure. People use their phones to complete reservations, ticket purchases, courses, content, and life services. These may not be held in the hand, but they are woven into everyday life.
In other words, consumption has shifted from “bringing it home” to “arranging life.”
This step is crucial.
Because when someone is willing to spend money to arrange their life, it means they haven’t completely pulled back. They’re just choosing more carefully: what’s worth it and what isn’t.
[III. Steady goods consumption is another important signal]
Don’t underestimate “stability”.
Many times, busyness is easy to see, while stability is often overlooked. When service consumption is booming, it’s more likely to become a headline; when goods consumption is steady, that’s the foundation that keeps life moving forward.
Retail sales of goods totaled 220,467 billion yuan, up 1.1% year on year. The growth rate isn’t high, but the sheer size of goods consumption pulls along manufacturing, logistics, retail, inventory, and channels—and also reflects the basic needs of households across the country.
A vendor at a vegetable market understands this kind of “stability” best.
Customers ask the price, compare options, and buy less—maybe half a pound instead of a full pound—but they’ll come back tomorrow. On supermarket shelves, paper towels, milk, and seasonings may not sell in a dramatic burst, but they are taken away every single day. Consumption isn’t only about “blockbuster” products; many forms of consumption quietly keep life in order.
Steady goods consumption means that residents’ basic spending hasn’t run out of momentum, and the business system is still able to function and rotate.
But it also reminds businesses: the era of stocking up, relying on promotions, and shouting slogans is getting less and less effective.
Consumers’ mental accounting has become more fine-grained.
Back then it was “buy it if you like it.” Later it became “buy it if it’s cheaper.” Now more and more people are saying “buy it when it’s actually useful.” Those three words hit hard—and they’re also fair.
For businesses, the real test isn’t whether you can attract customers back with shouts and calls—it’s whether people feel the product is truly worth taking up space at home, taking up the money in their accounts, and taking up their trust in their hearts.
Once trust becomes expensive, every product has to prove itself again.
[IV. Why services run fast, while goods are a bit slower]
Behind this is a logic of everyday life.
For many households today, their stock of goods isn’t low anymore. Appliances, furniture, phones, clothes—most things that meet basic needs were not bought from scratch. If it isn’t an urgent necessity, people will postpone; if it can still be used, they’ll watch and wait.
But services are different.
Services have timing.
If you don’t have this meal today, it’s gone; if you don’t take the kids out during the summer vacation, that summer vacation loses a segment of memories; if friends make plans three times but don’t meet, the relationship will slowly grow cooler. Service consumption captures the “present moment.”
That’s also why it’s more likely to recover first in a cautious environment.
People may buy one fewer clothing item, but it’s hard to cancel all social, leisure, and family activities for the long run. Life always needs a place to breathe a little.
This line doesn’t sound like economics, but it’s very close to the essence of consumption.
Consumption is not just purchasing power—it’s also a mental state. When someone is willing to walk into a restaurant, open a ticket-booking page, and sign the child up for an activity, it shows that at least they’re willing to leave some room for the future.
That room isn’t extravagant—but it’s precious.
[V. What to look at afterward matters more than shouting about hot and cold]
A set of six-month data can’t replace everyone’s real feelings.
Some people see the streets getting lively, while others feel their wallets are tighter. Some line up to eat, while others even start to carefully budget when ordering delivery. These feelings don’t contradict each other. Consumption is never one solid block; it’s layered into life.
What’s more worth looking at next are several specific indicators.
First, can service retail sales continue to grow faster than goods retail sales? One burst of busyness isn’t hard to achieve; sustained busyness indicates that people’s consumption confidence is steadier.
Second, look at catering revenue and online service retail sales. One connects to the offline world’s everyday bustle; the other connects to online lifestyles. If both ends are steady, it suggests service consumption isn’t just a single-point bubble.
Third, look at per-capita resident consumption spending, especially real growth. Nominal figures have temperature, but real growth can tell you more directly whether life is getting a little more relaxed.
Fourth, look at education, culture, and entertainment spending. This kind of spending best reflects a family’s attitude toward “quality of life.” When money is tight, people cut some non-essential spending first; if they’re willing to spend again, it often means their minds aren’t as tense as before.
What consumption fears most isn’t buying one fewer thing—it’s when everyone starts thinking, “Forget it; don’t spend at all.” As long as people are still willing to pay for a meal, a day out, a bit of companionship, or an experience, the market will still have temperature.
Of course, warmth isn’t the same as frenzy.
Truly healthy consumption isn’t everyone impulsively placing orders, nor businesses pushing customers with anxiety to trigger a rush. Instead, it’s ordinary people—after weighing it—still willing to say: this money is worth it.
That’s roughly the consumption picture in the first half of this year.
Steady goods keep the daily rhythm at home, and services light up the lights outside.
One kind of consumption keeps life supported; the other gives life a bit of hope.
This is more important than just raw busyness.
Because what ultimately sustains the market is never momentary noise, but the choices made by tens of thousands of people in ordinary days: tonight skip cooking and go out for a meal; this weekend don’t stay cooped up—take the kids out for a walk; don’t buy this item for now, but that stretch of time is worth keeping for yourself and your family.
Changes in consumption show up first on the bills.
And they show up at the dining table, too.
For research and study only; not investment advice.