#加密市场观察 Master talks about hot topics:

Let's talk about last night's surge in the pancake market. To put it simply, it's the market giving a thumbs up to reality. US stock futures began to rise during the Asian session, and continued to climb at the European and American openings. This indicates that it was not just a self-induced hype in the Asian market, but that the real money from Europe and America is also on board.

The actions of the Americans towards Venezuela are essentially about repricing energy and resources. If oil can flow smoothly, global inflationary pressures will naturally decrease, not to mention that there is also a need to deal with hard assets like gold and rare earths. Capital never talks about sentiment; it only looks at whether it's beneficial to the Americans.

But the problem is also very obvious; the price has risen, but the trading volume hasn't kept up. This has already revealed the underlying cards; this is not big capital entering the market, but liquidity scraps being matched. The current market, to put it bluntly, is lacking water; without water, even the most beautiful story is nonsense.

The good news is that after entering 2026, liquidity does show some signs of recovery, but there is really only one core variable. That is the monetary policy of the Americans, but in the end, it all depends on how Trump stirs things up.

Recently, this wave of movement looks like a rebound continuation after a breakthrough, but deep down, it is still a weak rebound in a bear market. Those who did not participate in the long positions need not worry; this kind of market is the easiest to deceive emotionally unstable individuals into the market.

The core task of the rebound is just one: to liquidate the shorts. If the shorts are not thoroughly dealt with, the market cannot move smoothly. The previous high of 94.5K has already been raided once; every segment above is hard pressure.

The real reversal is a complete turn in the big trend. This round is just a recovery from the oversold level of 80.6K; it was supposed to finish in December, but the sideways movement has dragged on to now, which is severely delayed. 94K is the Fibonacci 0.5 position, and 97.1K is the 0.618 position.

The lower bound of the futures liquidity gap is at 98K. Theoretically, there is still space to continue liquidating. However, the higher it goes, the greater the risk. The most market-appropriate trend is to pull back first, luring a batch of shorts in, and then pushing hard to 98K.

Let’s talk about Ethereum here. If it tries 3240-3250 again in the next couple of days and still can't hold, then a short-term pullback is basically inevitable. It wouldn’t be strange to continue rising after the adjustment, but the versions need to be differentiated.

A strong point is a quick end to the adjustment after horizontal consolidation, breaking through and stabilizing, with the target still being 3700 or 3800. A weaker scenario would involve a deep and long pullback, requiring a downward adjustment of the entire daily line rebound expectation from 2623. Even if it reaches the previous high, one must start considering a phase peak.

Of course, if the next move is a strong uptrend breaking through 3240 and 3250 without hesitation, that would be a strong version. 3800 or even 3900 is not bragging, but before that, do not chase highs with a full position.

Master looks at the trend:

Since the market has already rebounded, the operation should shift the support range upward. Focus on the effectiveness of support between 91.6K and 92.8K. In a rebound market, it’s not about sticking to one support level but gradually moving up the support as prices rise, seeking a more reasonable risk-reward ratio for trend trading.

The main pressure range in the next phase is between 94.3K and 96.4K. Due to the rapid pace of the rise, a short-term pullback is a normal phenomenon. To go further, it is necessary to digest the gains through oscillation and consolidation. Only after sufficient momentum can it be pulled up again, which will allow for greater space later.

RSI is at 72, in the overbought range, but as long as the trend does not show obvious deterioration, it still maintains the idea of looking for rebounds after a pullback.

Intra-day, the first support at 92.8K can be considered a key short-term support. As long as the pullback can hold here, the probability of continuing to rebound will significantly increase. If 92.8K to 94.3K can form an oscillation and consolidation, it will be very beneficial for the next wave of upward movement. If there is an unexpected weakness, the space below needs to look at the second support at 91.6K.

The first resistance uses the previous closing price of 94.3K as the upper boundary of the box. If it breaks through effectively again, the range from 95K to 96K has a high probability of being retested.

1.6 Master’s segment pre-buried:

Reference for long entry: 92200-92800 interval, target: 94300.

Reference for short entry: not currently referencing.

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot longs, and tomorrow they summarize shorts, appearing to 'capture tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it's all just reacting after the fact. A truly worthy blogger’s trading logic must be consistent, coherent, and withstand scrutiny, rather than only jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who the thinkers are and who the dream makers are!