$ETH Today's Analysis · 07/21 · Score 57 Neutral
🎯 Market Forecast 57/100 · Neutral
📍 Market Phase Early Recovery Rebound
⚡ Core Contradiction M1 momentum is upward, but the price is below the 200-day moving average; short-term holders are still in a loss position, and US sell-pressure remains persistent
📌 A deep-value rebound is confronting structural resistance below the 200-day moving average
There is slight bullish momentum emerging from deeply undervalued levels, but the lack of institutional confirmation signals limits conviction.
💬 Key Points for Today
① MVRV is 0.85 (cold zone), NUPL is -0.08 in the capitulation zone—30-day change +0.11 indicates an early recovery starting from deeply undervalued levels.
② ETF 7-day net inflow +55.6k $ETH (z=1.12) reverses the trend, but the 30-day cumulative figure is still -75.5k; Coinbase premium is -0.065, signaling continued US sell-pressure.
③ Exchange balances are at a 180-day low (0th percentile), with a 30-day change of -3.46%—showing that although whale supply has been basically flat over 30 days, withdrawals are still steady.
🔍 Seven-Dimension Scan
· Market Cycle · Early Recovery
MVRV=0.85, NUPL=-0.08, mid_momentum=UP
· Supply Structure · Balanced / Stable
Liveliness 30d chg flat, Stablecoin Mcap 7d +1.45%
· Whale Holdings · Neutral Withdrawals
Whale supply 30d flat, Exchange bal 30d -3.46%
· Institutional Capital Flows · Mixed Neutral
ETF 7d=+55.6k, 30d=-75.5k, CB_prem=-0.065
· Macro Liquidity · Neutral Liquidity
Fed Net Liq z=+1.75, DXY 4w -0.73%
· Options Sentiment · Low Volatility / Neutral
IV 1m=47.6 (20th pctl), Skew z=-0.98, CDRI=57
· Network Security · Healthy Growth
Staked $ETH 30d +1.71%, z=1.61
💸 Capital Flow Directions
· ETF 30d: +55.6K ETH
· Stablecoins 30d: +1.4%
· Mega whales 30d: -0.6%
⚠️ Risk Warnings
① Coinbase premium is negative (US sell pressure), indicating continued institutional sell-pressure
② The NVT signal is at the 93rd percentile over 180 days, suggesting on-chain throughput relative to valuation is weak
③ Data quality for M4 and M6 is declining; missing fields futures_basis_3m and leverage_ratio
ETH #宏观分析 #crypto
🎯 Market Forecast 57/100 · Neutral
📍 Market Phase Early Recovery Rebound
⚡ Core Contradiction M1 momentum is upward, but the price is below the 200-day moving average; short-term holders are still in a loss position, and US sell-pressure remains persistent
📌 A deep-value rebound is confronting structural resistance below the 200-day moving average
There is slight bullish momentum emerging from deeply undervalued levels, but the lack of institutional confirmation signals limits conviction.
💬 Key Points for Today
① MVRV is 0.85 (cold zone), NUPL is -0.08 in the capitulation zone—30-day change +0.11 indicates an early recovery starting from deeply undervalued levels.
② ETF 7-day net inflow +55.6k $ETH (z=1.12) reverses the trend, but the 30-day cumulative figure is still -75.5k; Coinbase premium is -0.065, signaling continued US sell-pressure.
③ Exchange balances are at a 180-day low (0th percentile), with a 30-day change of -3.46%—showing that although whale supply has been basically flat over 30 days, withdrawals are still steady.
🔍 Seven-Dimension Scan
· Market Cycle · Early Recovery
MVRV=0.85, NUPL=-0.08, mid_momentum=UP
· Supply Structure · Balanced / Stable
Liveliness 30d chg flat, Stablecoin Mcap 7d +1.45%
· Whale Holdings · Neutral Withdrawals
Whale supply 30d flat, Exchange bal 30d -3.46%
· Institutional Capital Flows · Mixed Neutral
ETF 7d=+55.6k, 30d=-75.5k, CB_prem=-0.065
· Macro Liquidity · Neutral Liquidity
Fed Net Liq z=+1.75, DXY 4w -0.73%
· Options Sentiment · Low Volatility / Neutral
IV 1m=47.6 (20th pctl), Skew z=-0.98, CDRI=57
· Network Security · Healthy Growth
Staked $ETH 30d +1.71%, z=1.61
💸 Capital Flow Directions
· ETF 30d: +55.6K ETH
· Stablecoins 30d: +1.4%
· Mega whales 30d: -0.6%
⚠️ Risk Warnings
① Coinbase premium is negative (US sell pressure), indicating continued institutional sell-pressure
② The NVT signal is at the 93rd percentile over 180 days, suggesting on-chain throughput relative to valuation is weak
③ Data quality for M4 and M6 is declining; missing fields futures_basis_3m and leverage_ratio
ETH #宏观分析 #crypto
