The detention of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, by U.S. forces became one of the boldest geopolitical moves of the Trump administration. This is not just the arrest of a leader from another country but an operation that could reshape the global oil market and regional politics. Let's analyze the pros and cons of this act. Pros: The fight against drug trafficking and terrorism. Maduro is accused of narco-terrorism, including conspiracy with cartels to supply cocaine to the U.S. His arrest could weaken these networks, reducing the flow of drugs into American communities, including states like West Virginia, where the opioid crisis has claimed thousands of lives. This strengthens U.S. national security and gives Trump political points as a "crime fighter."
Access to Venezuela's resources. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world — about 303 billion barrels. The detention of Maduro opens the door for sanctions to be lifted, allowing American companies like Chevron to return and invest billions in infrastructure. Trump has stated that the USA 'will temporarily manage the country' to ensure a transition and restore oil production, which has fallen to 800 thousand barrels per day.
Geopolitical gain. This is a signal to the opponents of the USA, including Iran, Russia, and China, that America is ready for decisive action. In Latin America, this may inspire opposition in other countries, weakening the influence of the 'axis of aggressors.'
Cons:
Risk of escalation of conflict. The operation has drawn condemnation from Latin American countries, including Brazil and Colombia, which see it as a violation of sovereignty. Maduro's loyalists still control the country, and unrest or guerrilla warfare is possible, which would require a long-term military presence from the USA — contrary to Trump's promise of 'no new wars.'
Humanitarian consequences. The arrest may provoke a migration crisis: millions of Venezuelans have already fled, and instability will worsen hunger and chaos. Critics, including the Pope, call for respect for human rights and the independence of Venezuela.
Economic risks for the USA. Although oil is a benefit, the operation may lead to rising fuel prices in the short term due to uncertainty. Plus, it diverts resources from domestic issues like inflation.
What this action will give US authorities in the future. In the long term, the arrest of Maduro is a strategic jackpot for the USA. Trump has directly stated that American oil giants will invest billions to 'fix the broken infrastructure' and raise production to 2-3 million barrels per day in 4-5 years. This will not only provide cheap oil for American refineries but also reduce dependence on OPEC and Russia. Economists estimate the potential of Venezuelan oil at $45 trillion — this could lower inflation, Fed rates, and boost the US stock market. Politically, this will strengthen Trump's position: control over Venezuela will weaken 'narco-terrorism' and return migrants, reducing the burden on the southern border. On a global scale, this will restore US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, displacing the influence of China and Russia. How the market, China, and Russia will react.
Global oil markets reacted cautiously — WTI prices fell to $57 per barrel as Venezuela produces only 1% of the world's oil. Short-term risks (blockade of tankers) could raise prices by $1-3, but the long-term increase in supply after sanctions are lifted will have a bearish effect, lowering prices.
Beijing condemned the arrest as 'hegemony' and a violation of sovereignty, but the reaction is quiet — possibly due to a deal. China imports >50% of Venezuelan oil (746 thousand barrels per day) at discounts to bypass sanctions. If the USA lifts the embargo, Chinese 'teapots' (independent refineries) will lose cheap oil, and prices will rise. This is a blow to China's energy security, but Trump hinted that Beijing would receive 'some' oil — possibly in exchange for concessions on Taiwan. Russia: Moscow also condemned the arrest, but without harsh measures. Russia has joint projects in Venezuela (extended for 15 years in November 2025) and debt of $17-19 billion secured by oil. The arrest could cost them market share, but the quiet reaction suggests bargaining — possibly for Ukraine. Who will be displaced from the Venezuelan oil market, and what piece of this pie the USA will also take. China and Russia are the main victims. China takes 80% of exports at discounts ($10-13 below Brent), using transshipment in Malaysia. Russia invests in fields, but is under sanctions. If the embargo is lifted, the USA will return: Chevron already provides 25% of production, and Trump promises billions from Exxon and others. The USA will take a 'piece of the pie' — control over exports, repatriation of Venezuelans, and oil for its refineries, redirecting flows from Asia to America. This will displace 'shadow' buyers like Iran and make the market transparent. How oil prices will react in case of lifting the embargo. Lifting the embargo will add 800 thousand barrels per day immediately, lowering prices by $1-2 (bearish effect). In the long term, with investments, production will rise to 3 million barrels, pushing prices even lower — to $50-55 per barrel. This is beneficial for the USA (cheap gasoline), but will hit producers like Saudi Arabia. Short-term risks (unrest) could raise prices by $3, but the market is already oversupplied.
