On January 3, 2026, the U.S. military launched a raid in Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and his wife. This action, which disrupts the geopolitical balance in Latin America, will have profound macroeconomic impacts on global precious metals and oil markets through three core pathways: geopolitical risk premium, supply-side shocks, and policy expectation reconstruction. As the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world (over 30.3 billion barrels), the political upheaval in Venezuela not only disturbs short-term price fluctuations but will also reshape the medium to long-term market structure. Its impact presents a clear trajectory of 'short-term impulse rise, medium-term supply-demand game, long-term return to fundamentals.'
The macro transmission logic of the event combines both suddenness and structure. From a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. intervention in sovereign nations through radical actions has led to a decrease in the predictability of the global order, causing a rapid rise in capital safe-haven demand; from a supply perspective, Venezuela's crude oil production in December 2025 is projected to be 963,000 barrels per day (a decrease of 158,000 barrels per day from November), which, although it only accounts for 0.8% of the global total, over 67% of it is globally scarce heavy high-sulfur crude oil, which is the core raw material for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries (which rely on it for 18%) to produce diesel and jet fuel. The disruption of supply directly impacts the heavy oil industry chain; from a policy perspective, the U.S. intends to solidify the 'petrodollar' system by controlling Venezuela's oil resources, weakening the energy influence of Russia and Iran. This strategic shift will reshape the global energy competition landscape.
The crude oil market is the first to bear the brunt of the impact, with price fluctuations strictly anchored to the degree of supply disruption and the pace of production recovery. In the short term (1-2 weeks), the WTI crude oil closing price before the event was $57.33 per barrel, and Brent crude oil was about $59 per barrel. After the outbreak of the conflict, the geopolitical risk premium and the supply shortage of heavy oil drove prices to rise quickly. WTI crude oil futures briefly broke through $85 per barrel, and Brent crude oil surged to $88 per barrel, with daily increases of 5.8% and 6.2%, respectively, ultimately closing in the range of $84.2-$84.6 per barrel. This increase reflects market concerns about supply disruption and is also supported by OPEC+ policy—the organization maintains a production cut of 3.24 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 (including a reduction of 2 million barrels per day continuing until the end of 2026) and has clearly paused production increases. The remaining 5.2 million barrels per day of spare capacity can partially hedge the gap but cannot fully offset the rigid shortage of heavy oil. It is worth noting that the spot price differential for heavy crude oil in the U.S. Gulf region quickly widened to an 18-month high, with the daily increase of Lake Maracaibo crude oil exceeding 10%, highlighting structural shortages of certain varieties.
In the medium term (1-3 months), oil price trends are diverging into three scenarios: in the optimistic scenario, the interim government stabilizes the situation quickly, restoring 70-80% of production capacity (about 670,000-770,000 barrels per day) within 6-8 weeks, combined with OPEC+ flexibly adjusting supply, leading oil prices to return to the range of $75-80 per barrel; in the baseline scenario, domestic turmoil delays the restoration of production capacity by more than 3 months, heavy oil shortages continue, and oil prices maintain $80-85 per barrel; in the pessimistic scenario, if a civil war or external intervention occurs, production capacity may decline significantly, and oil prices could approach $90 per barrel. However, considering the global crude oil market's expected surplus of 2 million barrels per day, the upside potential is limited. The core variables during this period are the ownership of Venezuela's main oil-producing areas (such as Lake Maracaibo) and the adjustment rhythm of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela—Chevron and other companies currently have a production capacity of 2.45 million barrels per day in Venezuela, and if sanctions are relaxed, it may accelerate the resumption of production.
In the long term (6-12 months), institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that the average price of Brent crude oil will drop to $56 per barrel in 2026, and WTI crude oil will drop to $52 per barrel, with the core logic being that the global crude oil supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Even if Venezuela's production capacity gradually recovers to 1.2 million barrels per day (as predicted by TradingEconomics), it will be difficult to reverse the market surplus situation in 2026. At the same time, the flow of oil trade will be restructured: previously, 90% of Venezuela's exports went to China, but if the new regime turns towards the U.S. and Europe, Asian buyers will be forced to increase reliance on imports from the Middle East and Russia, and the global heavy oil trade map will be redrawn.
Gold, as a core safe-haven asset, saw its spot price reach $4328 per ounce before the event. After the outbreak of the conflict, COMEX gold futures broke through $4400 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 3%, and the short-term target range is locked in at $4400-$4450 per ounce. The core support for this upward trend includes three factors: first, geopolitical risks driving inflows of safe-haven funds; second, inflation expectations rising due to crude oil increases; and third, medium to long-term support from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle—current market expectations suggest that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2026, with the federal funds rate target range expected to be further lowered from 3.50%-3.75%, which opens up space for gold prices. In the long term, Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise to $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by continued gold purchases by global central banks (net purchases of 700-800 tons in 2025), accelerated 'de-dollarization', and structural support from a supply gap of over 800 tons per year.
Silver shows more resilience, with its dual attribute of 'precious metal + industrial metal' leading its price increase. Before the event, the spot price of silver was about $75 per ounce, and after the conflict, the daily increase reached 5.3%, closing at $71.14 per ounce (with an intraday high of $73.2 per ounce), with a short-term target range of $78-80 per ounce. The supporting logic, in addition to geopolitical safe-haven demand, also includes the rigid growth of industrial demand—global demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase by 18% year-on-year in 2026, accounting for more than 30% of total demand, and the market has experienced a supply gap for five consecutive years, with inventories at historically low levels, further amplifying price elasticity.
The platinum group metals are showing a divergent trend: palladium is supported by demand for automotive catalytic converters, coupled with supply concerns, with price increases of about 4-6%; platinum, due to the hedging effects of industrial demand and the energy transition, has relatively moderate fluctuations, with short-term increases of 3-4%, and medium to long-term performance relying on the development pace of emerging fields such as hydrogen energy.
Across asset classes, in the short term, the correlation between crude oil and precious metals has risen to 0.7-0.8, with the VIX index expected to rise by 15-20% in the short term. Energy ETFs and gold ETFs are experiencing concentrated inflows of funds, reflecting a rapid decline in market risk appetite. However, in the medium term, the trends of the two will gradually diverge: crude oil will return to the fundamental logic of global supply and demand and OPEC+ policy adjustments, while precious metals will be more influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, uncertainty in global economic recovery, and the process of 'de-dollarization', with the correlation returning to a normal level of 0.3-0.5. In addition, inflation expectations triggered by rising oil prices may delay the Fed's interest rate cut pace, indirectly affecting global stock and bond valuations, with the energy sector outperforming, while sensitive industries such as aviation and chemicals face cost pressures.
From a broader macro perspective, this event has accelerated the restructuring of the global energy landscape. Countries will further emphasize the diversification of energy supply, and refining companies will accelerate equipment upgrades to accommodate crude oil from different origins; the U.S. intention to control Venezuela's oil industry will trigger strategic responses from countries like China and Russia, and geopolitical competition and energy rivalry will continue to escalate in Latin America.
From the results, the U.S. capture of Maduro significantly impacted the commodity markets in the short term but did not change the core fundamental trends: the medium to long-term excess pressure in the crude oil market remains unchanged, while precious metals benefit from structural safe-haven demand and expectations of loose monetary policy. For investors, short-term attention can be given to the safe-haven allocation value of energy and precious metals, but caution is needed regarding the risk of pullbacks after speculation; in the medium to long term, focus should be on core trends—monitoring the pace of production recovery and OPEC+ policy adjustments in the crude oil market, and capturing the dual drivers of central bank gold purchases and industrial demand in the precious metals market, seeking allocation opportunities amidst the balance of geopolitical disturbances and macro trends. The far-reaching impact of this geopolitical storm will continue to reshape the pricing logic and pattern of the global commodity market in the next 1-3 years.