The 24-hour drop of 23% isn’t the easiest thing to fool people with—it's that the perpetual is about 2% cheaper than the spot, and the funding rate is down to -1.25%: it looks like the shorts are already crowded and a bounce could happen at any moment.
For the next 2 to 6 hours, I won’t participate. The daily and 4-hour structures are still weak. The newly completed 15-minute rebound’s trading volume is only 0.59x the average of the previous 20 candles. The 1-hour OI has ticked up slightly, which suggests new shorts are still willing to keep paying, while spot hasn’t actively lifted the price. Bottom-fishing right now is betting on a short squeeze; chasing more shorts means taking on high funding rates and a discount-based cover. In both directions, the odds aren’t clean.
0.00776 is only near-term support—not a bottom confirmation. Until 0.00868 is reclaimed with volume and the perpetual–spot price gap is compressed within 1%, I’ll leave this volatility for margin players to chop each other up. If both conditions appear at the same time, then my “not participating” stance is invalidated. $HOME
For the next 2 to 6 hours, I won’t participate. The daily and 4-hour structures are still weak. The newly completed 15-minute rebound’s trading volume is only 0.59x the average of the previous 20 candles. The 1-hour OI has ticked up slightly, which suggests new shorts are still willing to keep paying, while spot hasn’t actively lifted the price. Bottom-fishing right now is betting on a short squeeze; chasing more shorts means taking on high funding rates and a discount-based cover. In both directions, the odds aren’t clean.
0.00776 is only near-term support—not a bottom confirmation. Until 0.00868 is reclaimed with volume and the perpetual–spot price gap is compressed within 1%, I’ll leave this volatility for margin players to chop each other up. If both conditions appear at the same time, then my “not participating” stance is invalidated. $HOME