2026 began in great uncertainty regarding the potential performance of the crypto market this year. This climate of instability is all the more noticeable as 2025 unfolded contrary to the widely held expectations in the market.
As perspectives remain divided, a central question persists: will 2026 be marked by one of the most extreme crypto bear markets in history? BeInCrypto interviewed several industry experts to explore what the year might hold for us.
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is no longer a reference.
BeInCrypto had already highlighted that expectations for crypto markets in 2025 were generally optimistic, driven by a crypto-friendly U.S. president and favorable macroeconomic winds, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and liquidity injections.
Despite these catalysts, the market ended the year in the red. Bitcoin closed 2025 down 5.7%, while a strong correction in the fourth quarter led to a 23.7% drop in the asset, marking its worst performance in a fourth quarter since 2018.
These disappointing performances have led many experts to revise their forecasts and question the future trajectory of the market. In times of doubt, investors often turn to historical cycle analysis for benchmarks.
For Bitcoin, the four-year cycle is one of the most cited benchmarks for anticipating future market movements. According to this model, 2026 should mark the beginning of a bear market.
But does that mean the market will continue to decline? Not necessarily. An increasing number of experts argue that this pattern may no longer be relevant.
Nic Puckrin, analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, believes that the four-year cycle may no longer be the most relevant analytical framework for Bitcoin. According to him, market dynamics have significantly changed since the approval of ETFs and the rise of institutional capital.
"If 2025 proved disappointing in terms of performance, it certainly was not in terms of institutional adoption and acceptance. Now, the determining factors are likely to be macroeconomic or geopolitical, rather than time-related. Bitcoin is increasingly conforming to the dynamics of other financial assets, and no longer simply to the rhythm of its halvings," Puckrin stated.
Jamie Elkaleh, marketing director at Bitget Wallet, adds that traditional macroeconomic cycles are now more reliable. According to him,
"Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity, M2 money supply growth, and Fed policy weighs increasingly against the mechanical impact of halvings. We are truly witnessing a 'de-halving' of crypto, where institutional ETF flows establish a more regular demand that tempers the volatility related to supply shocks."
Similarly, Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, emphasizes that while halving remains important, it no longer solely explains market behavior.
He indicates that as crypto becomes institutionalized, it behaves increasingly like a global asset class rather than a closed system. This phenomenon makes simple cyclical forecasting models less reliable.
Why 2026 escapes the traditional bullish-bearish pattern
If the four-year cycle is no longer suitable, some analysts point to other long-term historical frameworks such as the Benner Cycle. According to this model, 2026 would be a "prosperous year, with high prices conducive to selling stocks and assets of all kinds."
If the pattern holds, this could suggest a generally bullish environment. However, does that mean a new bull run is inevitable? Experts caution: the answer is no longer that simple.
Elkaleh explained to BeInCrypto that the market's inability to meet bullish expectations in 2025 marks a clear transition from speculative behavior to an asset class increasingly correlated with macroeconomic cycles.
"Rather than a simple bullish or bearish opposition, 2026 is shaping up to be a period of structural consolidation. Excessive leverage has been purged, but the underlying architecture—ETFs, corporate treasuries, and clearer regulatory frameworks such as the GENIUS Act—suggests that in the event of a pullback, the floor will likely be higher than in previous cycles. As rate cuts stabilize the cost of capital, this consolidation could evolve into a more disciplined and rational bullish phase later in 2026, rather than into a speculative frenzy," he stated.
Grachev shares this observation, believing that 2026 will not conform as easily to classic market categories.
"I don't think 2026 can be summarized as a classic bullish or bearish trajectory. We might rather witness divergence. Bitcoin will continue to guide the markets, but I doubt that other crypto assets will follow as faithfully as before," he indicates.
The executive adds that while altcoins are expected to remain volatile, the diversity of possible scenarios could be much wider than in the past. Overall, these developments outline a more disciplined market structure that is more responsive to demand.
Grachev emphasized that the "painful reset" triggered by the crash on October 10 has left the market in a healthier position. In the future, markets will be less fragile and more responsive to demand.
Finally, Puckrin described the last few months as a phase of price readjustment, marked by selling from long-term "OG" holders and institutions buying the surplus.
"In the coming months, I still expect the market to rebalance, thus preparing the ground for a new historical record next year. But there will likely still be pain and volatility along the way," he commented.
Crypto bearish scenario in 2026: what could go wrong
If the general trend remains cautiously optimistic, the market has already proven it can defy all expectations. BeInCrypto has consulted experts to identify the factors that could realistically trigger or amplify an extreme bear market in 2026 for the entire crypto market.
According to Puckrin, an extreme bearish scenario would likely require a convergence of several factors. This includes a tightening of global liquidity, a prolonged risk-off period, and a structural shock.
For Bitcoin, such a shock could occur if digital asset treasuries collectively started selling in an already fragile market, unable to absorb such an influx of supply.
"The bursting of the AI bubble could also be a catalyst that causes crypto prices to fall. However, if liquidity and demand return, this bearish scenario would become less likely in 2026," the analyst predicts.
Elkaleh mentioned that an extreme bear market in 2026 would likely be triggered by external shocks rather than inherent weaknesses in the crypto sector.
"The main risks include the bursting of an AI-related bubble and triggering a strong correction in U.S. stocks, a new monetary tightening by the Fed if inflation persists, or a systemic confidence event such as the bankruptcy of a major exchange or the collapse of a corporate treasury too exposed to leverage. In a scenario where institutional flows dry up due to geopolitical instability, the absence of new buyers could accelerate capital outflows and push the price back towards historically realized levels between $55,000 and $60,000," detailed the executive.
Konstantins Vasilenko, co-founder of Paybis, believes that an extreme bear market in 2026 would likely fall within the continuation of the current situation, characterized by a market dominated by institutions and limited participation from retail investors.
"If institutional flows slow down or stop while individuals stay on the sidelines, bearish pressure can persist without an obvious trigger for a rebound," Vasilenko states.
Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and CEO of the WeFi group, warned that new market stresses could arise from leverage.
"A new supposedly safe yield product or an algorithmic stablecoin that works until it doesn't. Or an exchange that, behind the scenes, practices fractional reserve. The trigger is always leverage, hidden where it shouldn't be," he revealed to BeInCrypto.
How the market can avoid a bearish cycle
In contrast, experts have also detailed factors that could completely invalidate the bearish scenario and support a new bullish market. Grachev believes that the bearish outlook is weakening primarily for two reasons: a healthier leverage profile, and an influx of capital with longer investment horizons.
He specified that compared to previous cycles, the reduction of excessive risk has led to more disciplined market behavior. At the same time, more pragmatic regulatory approaches are lowering barriers to entry for institutions.
"If institutions start deploying capital again after the end of the year (which they usually do), and if regulatory clarity continues to progress, the crypto market will operate under conditions more favorable to healthier dynamics," Grachev reiterated.
Elkaleh suggested that the bearish scenario would weaken significantly if signs of sovereign adoption or large-scale tokenization of financial assets were observed. He specified that if a G20 country added Bitcoin to its strategic reserves, or if U.S. regulators allowed broader tokenization of the capital markets, Bitcoin's scarcity could then shift from a speculative narrative to a central issue.
"Meanwhile, massive adoption of RWAs, on-chain stablecoin payments, and favorable regulatory advancements in the United States could anchor demand in real utility. If this combines with a potential liquidity supercycle—driven by fiscal stimulus or a weakening US dollar—these factors could greatly surpass cyclical pressures and support a new bullish cycle, with price potential beyond $150,000," stated the CMO of Bitget Wallet.
Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, shared a longer-term vision, emphasizing that the resilience of the crypto sector builds when structural demand begins to outpace cyclical dynamics. He identifies three main drivers:
Macroeconomic and political triggers: sovereign adoption, strategic recognition of Bitcoin, or changes in rates directing capital towards tangible assets.
Sustained institutional inflows: continuous demand for ETFs and treasuries absorbing supply even during market pullbacks.
Growth in practical usage: increased use of Bitcoin for payments, collateral, and hedging, beyond the speculative sphere.
How to spot a crypto bear market before the price reflects it
Whether 2026 is a year of bullish, bearish, or something in between, it will be essential to observe the early signals that could indicate the direction ahead.
For Puckrin, the focus is less on short-term fluctuations than on the structure of the market. He notes that persistent bearish breaks below the 50 and 100-week moving averages, combined with multiple failures to hold at key resistance levels, would represent a "red flag."
"Around $82,000, we consider it the true market average—the average cost of active investors—so it is a price level to watch closely. Similarly, the cost basis of Strategy is at $74,400, which constitutes another key threshold. A bearish break below these levels would not automatically indicate the arrival of an extreme bear market, but it would warrant caution," he explained to BeInCrypto.
Elkaleh added that before price action alone confirms a deep bear market, several on-chain signals tend to appear first. A prolonged decline in the number of wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC would indicate that the most sophisticated actors are reducing their exposure.
He added that if on-chain purchase demand weakens while prices remain relatively stable, it often suggests that the market is supported by leverage rather than by genuine organic interest. Meanwhile, continuous growth in the supply of stablecoins may signal increasing stress, with capital positioning defensively while remaining within the crypto ecosystem.
In contrast, Sakharov argues that the opposite trend would be more concerning. He mentioned:
"Forget the price, look where the dollars are going. If the market capitalization of stablecoins decreases, it is a strong sign that capital is completely leaving the ecosystem. This differs from a crash where money merely circulates or remains on the sidelines. I would also monitor the actual use of stablecoin infrastructures. If the infrastructure remains active, the decline is just a simple cleaning of the narrative."
Meanwhile, Grachev believes that early signals generally come from derivatives and liquidity conditions, as this is where changes in risk appetite are most visible.
Consistently negative funding, a drop in open interest, and a thinning order book signal a more defensive posture, with participants reducing their exposure while capital becomes increasingly cautious.
"When it becomes more difficult to move a large volume without impacting the market, it indicates that liquidity is retreating and risk tolerance is tightening. Tensions also quickly appear in incentive-driven projects. If activity drops sharply as soon as incentives fade, it suggests that demand was largely reflexive and not sustainable. As the market matures, these structural signals matter more than short-term price movements. Prices may fluctuate temporarily, but liquidity, depth, and capital behavior are much harder to manipulate," stated the executive.
As 2026 progresses, the crypto market is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, institutional behavior, and liquidity dynamics, rather than immutable historical cycles. Although the risk of a new downturn persists, experts suggest that the market is entering a phase of consolidation and divergence, where structural signals and capital flows are more important than simple bullish or bearish classifications.