The stock of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR) had a tough year in 2025. It fell by 49.3 percent, as constant selling pressure pushed the stock to its lowest level since the end of September 2024.
The start of the year 2026 remains difficult. For the company, uncertainty is growing as a possible removal from the MSCI index looms. The decision will be made on January 15.
This is why the Strategy stock came under pressure in 2025
The cryptocurrency market also struggled in 2025, and companies with digital assets were similarly affected. This was clearly reflected in the development of the Strategy stock.
Market data shows that MSTR lost 49.3 percent of its value in 2025. Losses increased sharply in the second half of the year.
Analyst Ted Pillows emphasized how significant the decline was. He said that MSTR alone lost 66 percent in the last six months. According to Pillows, nearly USD 90 billion in market value has disappeared.
He cited several reasons. In addition to the disappointing Bitcoin price, according to Pillows, the largest cryptocurrency also declined by 5.7 percent in 2025, contradicting many bullish forecasts. This has further pressured Strategy's stock.
The company is closely tied to Bitcoin and currently holds 672,497 BTC, which is approximately 3.2 percent of the total Bitcoin supply.
As BeInCrypto already reported, Strategy has spent more than USD 50 billion on purchasing Bitcoin. Most of the funds came through loans and stock sales. For comparison: the company's software business generates around USD 460 million annually. This is small in comparison to the large crypto position.
Strategy currently holds approximately USD 59 billion in Bitcoin. However, the company's total market capitalization is only around USD 46 billion. This has raised concerns about valuation and risks on the balance sheet.
"It is currently trading at a discount of about 20 to 25 percent, so roughly 20 to 25 percent below the value of its underlying Bitcoin positions," said Pillows.
In addition to the Bitcoin price, Pillows mentioned other factors:
"Strong share dilution, risk of index delisting, possible pressure to delist from the exchange, and a complete collapse of the NAV premium."
Despite this, the company has continued to expand its Bitcoin position. Strategy repeatedly emphasized that its balance sheet can withstand larger declines in the Bitcoin price.
"If Bitcoin falls to our average value of USD 74,000, we still have 5.9 times the amount of assets compared to our convertible bonds, which we refer to as our BTC rating of the debt. At USD 25,000 for Bitcoin, it would be 2.0 times the value," the company stated.
MSTR decision: This risk threatens your strategy
Even if overall market conditions can change, Strategy faces a direct challenge with the MSCI decision.
MSCI has proposed classifying companies as "funds" if their digital assets exceed 50 percent of their balance sheet total. Such companies could then no longer be included in major stock indices.
For Strategy, this would be serious. The final decision is expected by January 15th. It could result in the company being excluded from the MSCI indices.
According to JPMorgan, an MSCI delisting could mean up to USD 8.8 billion in capital outflow. This would further increase pressure on the stock, especially now that investors are nervous. Therefore, everyone is currently watching the MSCI decision. It could significantly influence the short-term development of the Strategy stock.