2026 has begun, and many are uncertain about how the crypto market will develop this year. Especially after 2025, which turned out very differently than many had expected, the uncertainty is currently high.
As opinions continue to diverge, one important question remains open: Will 2026 bring one of the strongest bear markets in crypto history? BeInCrypto has spoken with several industry experts to find out what this year might bring.
Will everything change in 2026? The four-year cycle probably no longer shapes the Bitcoin price
BeInCrypto previously reported that there were many optimistic expectations for the crypto markets in 2025. Reasons for this included a crypto-friendly president in the USA and favorable conditions from the economy, such as interest rate cuts and more money in the market from the US Federal Reserve.
However, despite these positive factors, the year ended with losses. The Bitcoin price fell by 5.7 percent in 2025. Particularly in the fourth quarter, it plummeted by a whole 23.7 percent—this was the worst fourth quarter since 2018.
Many experts have therefore adjusted their expectations and are uncertain about the further course of the market. In such uncertain times, many investors look to the past for guidance.
For Bitcoin, the so-called four-year cycle is one of the most well-known methods to predict the next step in the market. According to this model, 2026 would normally indicate the beginning of a bear market.
Does this mean that the market will continue to fall? Not necessarily. More and more experts believe that this pattern no longer always holds.
Nic Puckrin, analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, believes that the four-year cycle is no longer the best way to analyze Bitcoin. In his view, the conditions in the market have changed significantly—especially since the existence of the ETF and the increasing activity of large investors.
"Even if 2025 was disappointing in terms of price, Bitcoin has nevertheless gained significance for large investors. The most important factors for the future will be more things like the world economy or politics—less the timelines. Bitcoin behaves increasingly like other financial assets and no longer just like during halvings," Puckrin said.
Jamie Elkaleh, marketing director at Bitget Wallet, also believes that classic economic cycles are becoming more important now. He says:
"Bitcoin's reaction to global cash influx, M2 expansion, and central bank policies is now more important than the automatic effect of halvings. We are practically seeing a 'de-halving' phase in the crypto market. Large investors through ETFs ensure that price fluctuations become weaker."
Also, Andrei Grachev, senior partner at DWF Labs, emphasizes that while the halving still plays a role, it no longer explains market behavior alone.
He says that as crypto is increasingly shaped by large investors, it behaves more like a global asset rather than an independent system. As a result, simple prediction models based on cycles lose their explanatory power.
Why 2026 breaks the classic bullish-bearish scheme
If it is no longer about the four-year cycle, some analysts are looking at longer time periods. One example is the so-called Benner cycle. According to this model, 2026 is a year of "good times, high prices, and the time to sell stocks and values."
If the pattern holds, there would mostly be bullish conditions. Is a new bull market therefore certain? Experts say it's not that simple anymore today.
Elkaleh told BeInCrypto that the disappointed bullish expectations of 2025 are a clear shift away from excessive speculation. Now Bitcoin is more connected with other markets.
"2026 will likely not be a clear bull or bear year. We are experiencing a phase in which the market is consolidating. Risky leveraged trades have been reduced, and the foundation is more stable: With ETFs, corporate investments, and clearer rules such as the GENIUS law, it looks like we have more stability than in the last cycles. If interest rate cuts come, this phase could later transform into a calmer but healthy bull market—not into a wild rally," Elkaleh said.
Grachev sees it similarly. He believes that 2026 may not fit the usual designations like bull or bear market.
"I don't think 2026 can be clearly labeled as a bull or bear year. It could be that we see a separation. Bitcoin continues to set the direction, but I'm not sure if other crypto assets will follow as strongly as before," he said.
He also explained that altcoins will continue to fluctuate significantly, but the opportunities are greater than before. Together, these developments show that the market in 2026 could be more structured and stronger, characterized by real demand.
Grachev emphasized that the "painful restart" during the crash on the tenth of October has put the market in a healthier position. In the future, the market will be less susceptible and react more strongly to demand.
In the end, Puckrin described the last months as a phase of reassessment. In this phase, many long-term "OG" holders sold, and institutions bought the excess supply.
"In the coming months, I still expect the market to balance out. This could lead to a new all-time high next year. However, there will likely be more pain and fluctuations on the way there," he said.
Crypto outlook 2026: These risks could slow down the market
Although the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic, the market often shows surprises. BeInCrypto asked experts what factors could realistically trigger or strengthen an extreme crypto bear market in 2026.
Puckrin believes that several factors would likely need to come together for an extreme bear scenario. These include less available capital worldwide, a longer period during which investors avoid risks, and a structural shock.
A shock could happen with Bitcoin if many companies sell their crypto assets and the already weak market cannot absorb this amount.
"The bursting of the AI bubble could also lead to a drop in crypto. However, if more funds and demand return, this bear scenario for 2026 is less likely," estimated the analyst.
Elkaleh stated that an extreme crypto bear market in 2026 is likely to be triggered more by external shocks than by weaknesses within the crypto industry.
"Among the main risks is the bursting of the AI bubble with a strong sell-off in US stocks, further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve if inflation remains high, or a significant trust problem, for example, due to the failure of an important exchange or a company with too much debt. If institutional funds dry up, for example, due to geopolitical tensions, there are fewer buyers. This can lead to faster capital withdrawal and push prices towards about 55,000–60,000 USD," the manager explained.
Konstantin Vasilenko, co-founder of Paybis, said that an extreme bear market in 2026 would probably be a continuation of the current situation. The market is determined by institutions, while private investors remain sidelined.
"If institutional funds flow more slowly or pause while retail investors keep waiting, downward pressure can persist without a clear reason for recovery," Vasilenko said.
Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and CEO of WeFi, warned that future market pressure could arise from too much leverage.
"Sometimes it's a new 'safe yield' token or an algorithmic stablecoin that works until it doesn't. Or again an exchange that secretly operates with too few reserves. The trigger is almost always a hidden leverage effect in the wrong place," he said to BeInCrypto.
This way, the market can prevent a bear cycle
On the other hand, experts also mentioned factors that could completely refute a bear scenario and support a new bull market. Grachev believes that the bearish outlook is mainly weakened due to two points: less risky leveraged products and more capital that remains invested long-term.
He explained that compared to previous cycles, the lower risk leads to more discipline in the market. Additionally, clearer rules help institutions to enter the market more easily.
"If institutions invest again after the turn of the year (as is often the case) and the rules become clearer, there are better conditions for a more stable crypto market," Grachev emphasized.
Elkaleh believes that the bear scenario loses strength when states or large markets adopt crypto more strongly or when financial assets are mapped through tokens on a large scale. For instance, if a G20 country were to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve or if US authorities allowed more tokenization in capital markets, it could change the perception of Bitcoin's scarcity—from speculation to real significance.
"At the same time, widespread use of real values as tokens, payments with stablecoins, and positive US regulations could support demand through real utility. If a possible liquidity cycle comes into play—perhaps because the US dollar becomes weaker or new assistance programs emerge—these factors could counter the usual fluctuations and enable a new bull market up to the range of 150,000 USD and beyond," said the marketing chief of Bitget Wallet.
Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, shared a long-term perspective and stressed that the crypto industry becomes more resilient as the demand for real applications grows and not just sentiment counts. He sees three main factors:
Macro and political triggers: Government crypto usage, Bitcoin as an important reserve, or interest rate changes that direct capital to tangible assets.
Steady institutional inflows: Through ETFs and corporate reserves, supply is also absorbed during pullbacks.
More practical usage: Bitcoin is used more frequently for payments, collateral, or hedging and not just for speculation.
This is how you recognize a crypto bear market before it shows in the price
Whether the year 2026 will be a bull market, a bear market, or a middle ground also depends on how quickly early signals are recognized that could indicate what is to come.
Puckrin focuses less on short-term price changes and more on market structure. He said that sustained declines below the 50-week and 100-week averages and frequent failures at important resistance levels would be an "alarm signal."
"Around 82,000 USD is considered the average price at which active investors bought the coin—this is an important price range. Similarly, 74,400 USD is the basis for the strategy, making it an important mark. If the price falls below, it does not automatically mean that an extreme bear market begins, but caution is then advisable," he said to BeInCrypto.
Elkaleh said that various on-chain signals usually appear first before only price development confirms that we are in a deep bear market. If the number of wallets with 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin decreases over a long period, it can be a sign that experienced participants are reducing their risk.
He also stated that it often is the case: if the on-chain buying demand weakens and the price remains stable, it means that the market is supported more by leverage than by genuine interest. At the same time, a sustained growth in the amount of stablecoins can indicate that more uncertainty prevails. At that point, capital shifts to a cautious position but remains within the crypto space.
Sakharov sees it differently. He finds the reverse development more concerning. He said:
"Forget the price and look at where the money flows. When the market capitalization of stablecoins decreases, it is a clear sign that capital is completely leaving the ecosystem. This is different from a crash where the money is just rotating or waiting on the sidelines. I would also observe the real use of stablecoin infrastructure. If there is still a lot of activity here, the downturn is usually just a matter of narrative."
Grachev, on the other hand, believes that the first signals usually manifest through derivatives and liquidity conditions. There, one can see the fastest how much risk market participants are willing to take.
If the funding rates remain negative for longer, open interest decreases and order books thin out, it indicates that participants are acting defensively, and capital becomes more cautious.
"If it becomes harder to trade large amounts without moving the market, liquidity pulls back and risk appetite decreases. You often see stress quickly in projects where incentives drive activity. If usage drops sharply when incentives are removed, demand was usually reflexive but not permanent. As the market matures, these structural signals become more important compared to short-term price movements. Prices can move in the short term, but liquidity, market depth, and capital behavior are not so easily manipulated," the expert said.
In 2026, the crypto market will increasingly be influenced by economic conditions, institutional behavior, and liquidity, no longer just by old market cycles. Even though there are still downward risks, experts believe the market is entering a phase of consolidation and differences. Here, structural signals and capital flows count primarily, not just simple bullish or bearish classifications.