The chief commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) is more likely to fall to $50,000 than to exceed $100,000 in 2026.
McGlone published his market outlook for 2026 on January 1, warning of significant volatility ahead across all asset classes.
The strategist had correctly predicted the gold rally to $4,000 an ounce in early 2025, with the precious metal reaching a record of $4,549.78 in December.
His forecasts for 2026 present a distinctly more cautious outlook for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities.
What happened
McGlone warned that cryptocurrencies "have reached a peak" and could lead a post-inflation deflationary phase.
The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index fell by 19% in 2025, which McGlone cited as evidence supporting his bearish thesis on cryptocurrencies.
He suggested that U.S. Treasury bonds will outperform gold in 2026, with the precious metal facing risks of "overheating" after its historic rally.
McGlone has predicted that U.S. stocks could experience their third consecutive year of decline since 2008, despite record highs set in December 2025.
The strategist compared President Donald Trump's economic calendar to that of Herbert Hoover, whose presidency coincided with the 1929 Wall Street crash and the ensuing Great Depression.
McGlone's analytical framework suggests that major asset classes may have reached cyclical peaks, with 2026 favoring tactical traders over long-term positions.
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Why this matters
McGlone's track record on gold reinforces the weight of his bearish forecasts for 2026, even though his predictions on Bitcoin have historically been mixed.
The analyst's thesis relies on a reversal of the "wealth effect" after years of aggressive liquidity and speculative asset appreciation.
As inflation cools and financial conditions normalize, McGlone expects cryptocurrencies to lead deflationary deleveraging rather than continue to appreciate.
His prediction sharply contrasts with bullish forecasts from analysts like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts Bitcoin at $200,000 by March 2026.
McGlone's outlook suggests that 2026 will reward agility more than conviction, with volatility and relative value strategies potentially dominating market behavior.
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