XRP reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) plummeted in 2025. From about 4 billion tokens at the beginning of the year, they decreased to around 1.6–1.7 billion in December. This is the lowest level since 2018. Investors speculate whether there will be a supply shock of XRP in 2026.

However, analysts warn that low balances on exchanges do not necessarily indicate price pressure or a lasting increase.

The decline of XRP exchange reserves in a historical context

Data from Glassnode shows that XRP reserves on exchanges fell from 3.76 billion on October 8, 2025, to 1.6 billion by the end of December. This sparked a discussion about potential short-term shortages.

This sharp reduction in reserves coincided with Ripple's routine release of 1 billion XRP from custody on January 1, 2026.

However, historical trends show that a decrease in reserves on exchanges does not automatically lead to a price explosion.

At the end of 2018, XRP reserves were at a similarly low level, and prices continued to decline. Also, at the end of 2022, a significant drop in reserves did not lead to increases until the end of 2024. Market analyst Web3Niels shared:

When attention is focused on price, real changes occur in the background... liquidity is being removed. The market becomes thinner, more sensitive, and significantly more reactive to demand.

In other words, the decrease in supply on exchanges mainly alleviates short-term selling pressure rather than creating new demand.

The range of data and reporting limitations of exchanges - unmasked data on the real supply of XRP

Theories about a supply shock are increasingly questioned due to incomplete data. Glassnode - a popular on-chain metrics provider - only monitors about 10 exchanges. Meanwhile, analyst Leonidas expanded the analysis to 30 platforms. He discovered that by the end of 2025, about 14 billion XRP were on exchanges. This is definitely more than the often-cited 1.6 billion. Leonidas wrote:

The Glassnode chart only includes data from 10 exchanges and only from wallets linked by them to the exchanges... Collecting data from a larger number of exchanges, especially those holding billions of XRP, would better reflect reality and potential trends.

This discrepancy highlights the problem of relying on data from a limited number of exchanges. The high liquidity of XRP causes tokens to quickly appear or disappear from platforms. For this reason, static reserves are not a reliable predictor of market behavior. Analyst Vet_X0 wrote:

XRP listed for sale in order books is dynamic... sometimes $10 million in purchases boosts the price, while sometimes even $100 million does not stop the price decline.

The monthly release of XRP from custody by Ripple further complicates the situation. On January 1, 2026, 1 billion XRP was unlocked. However, only about 200–300 million entered circulation, as 60–80% was immediately secured again.

The market anticipated this issuance, which is why most participants regarded it as a 'non-event' and did not expect dynamic price changes.

Demand for XRP may be more influenced by factors such as inflows to the XRP ETF, institutional adoption, or regulatory issues in the USA. The anticipated CLARITY Act will be especially significant.

Despite 8-year lows in XRP reserves, the supply situation remains dynamic. A supply shock in 2026 is not a foregone conclusion.

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