A classic case where fundamentals diverge from the price. Let’s break it down piece by piece.
📉 Price and technical picture
#XRP is trading at about **$1.10–1.11**. This drop is almost **40% since the start of the year** and **70% below the all-time high** of $3.65.
The technical picture is weak: the price is below all key moving averages (50-, 100-, 200-day). The nearest resistance is **$1.16** (50-day EMA). A break above **$1.15** will open the way to $1.20.
🔥 What worries the community
Rumors about a listing on DTCC: The DTCC AI search engine returned a fake response about “XRP Haircut and Classification”. There is no official listing, and Ripple was not among the 30+ participants in the DTCC pilot (BlackRock, JPMorgan, Chainlink).
SBI partnership with Solana: SBI renames SBI R3 Japan to SBI Solana Global, with the Solana Foundation as a shareholder. Given SBI’s nearly 10-year partnership with Ripple, the community took this as a betrayal.
⚖️ What experts are saying
Crypto lawyer Bill Morgan urged not to dramatize:
· Institutions are moving to a multi-chain architecture—one blockchain doesn’t replace another.
· SBI isn’t backing away from Ripple—it’s simply expanding its strategy.
· This is good news for the whole industry, not a hit to #XRP.
Ripple CEO David Schwartz said that the SEC acknowledges: #XRP, by its essence, is not a security. The court has already separated institutional and exchange sales.
🐳 What whales are doing
Large holders have accumulated more than 4 billion XRP since July 2025, reaching a record 12.13 billion XRP. Just in the past week alone — 70 million XRP.
Binance reserves fell from 2.8 to 2.61 billion XRP — the lowest level in 5 months. This reduces selling pressure. But the speed of XRP moving on-chain is extremely low, and retail demand is weak. Whale activity hasn’t yet led to a price increase.
The long-term trend is even bigger: since July 2025, wallets holding 10–100 million XRP have increased their holdings from 8 to a record 12.13 billion XRP — that’s +4.63 billion tokens in a year. Whales are building positions all the way down along XRP’s fall from $3.60 to $1.06.
Why isn’t the price going up?
· Low turnover speed: XRP rarely moves between wallets (velocity near 0.0034)—it’s accumulating, not trading.
· Retail is not connected: all activity comes from whales; retail traders are left aside.
· ETFs are being sold: ETF-related news triggered fresh sell-offs from issuers.
· The macro: geopolitics (US–Iran) and deleveraging by institutions outweigh the reduction in supply.
📊 Market structure
The gap between whale activity and retail on Binance is 35.1% (the level from early May). But across all exchanges, the gap is 38.4%, which is 12.4 percentage points higher than the May low. This means whales are active on a global scale, but their activity is unevenly distributed.
Bottom line: Whales are betting on XRP—removing coins from exchanges and creating a supply deficit. But without retail demand and an improvement in the macro environment, that’s not enough to reverse the trend. The market is frozen, waiting for a new catalyst.
Fundamentally, XRP looks good: whales are accumulating, regulatory fog is clearing, and SBI isn’t going away. But the price is still under pressure due to weak retail demand and geopolitics. The market is waiting either for a break above $1.15** to kick things off, or **a loss of $1.10 for a new leg down.