$SPACE falls below the issue price. What will truly determine the direction of the stock price next may not be short-term sentiment, but rather two upcoming events:
1) Whether Starship’s test flight goes smoothly—this directly affects the market’s confidence in its technical execution.
2) The wave of unlocks around August 6: the first batch of insider shares, representing roughly 20% of the locked-up amount, will become tradable after the earnings report is released. This time, the unlocks are released in stages rather than all at once, which— to some extent—spreads out the timing of selling pressure.
It’s worth noting that Musk personally holds 6.4 billion shares, which won’t be unlocked until June 2027. The real biggest risk of heavy selling pressure lies even further in the future.
Looking near the $135 issue price, the market is currently showing a rare split: the same stock, with institutional valuations ranging from $30 to $800—a spread of nearly 27x. This alone suggests that no one can accurately say what this company is worth right now.
For investors willing to withstand high volatility and who buy into the long-term narrative of “space + satellite internet + AI infrastructure,” a pullback to around the issue price offers a relatively friendlier reference point. But for investors who care most about profitability and valuation margin of safety, the company is not yet profitable, free cash flow is not expected to turn positive until the next decade, and the ongoing supply pressure from phased unlocks over the coming months are all real risks that can’t be ignored.
Falling below the issue price by itself doesn’t automatically mean it’s “cheap.” The key checkpoints for testing this pricing logic are the Starship test flight in the next week, and the earnings report plus unlocks one month later.
1) Whether Starship’s test flight goes smoothly—this directly affects the market’s confidence in its technical execution.
2) The wave of unlocks around August 6: the first batch of insider shares, representing roughly 20% of the locked-up amount, will become tradable after the earnings report is released. This time, the unlocks are released in stages rather than all at once, which— to some extent—spreads out the timing of selling pressure.
It’s worth noting that Musk personally holds 6.4 billion shares, which won’t be unlocked until June 2027. The real biggest risk of heavy selling pressure lies even further in the future.
Looking near the $135 issue price, the market is currently showing a rare split: the same stock, with institutional valuations ranging from $30 to $800—a spread of nearly 27x. This alone suggests that no one can accurately say what this company is worth right now.
For investors willing to withstand high volatility and who buy into the long-term narrative of “space + satellite internet + AI infrastructure,” a pullback to around the issue price offers a relatively friendlier reference point. But for investors who care most about profitability and valuation margin of safety, the company is not yet profitable, free cash flow is not expected to turn positive until the next decade, and the ongoing supply pressure from phased unlocks over the coming months are all real risks that can’t be ignored.
Falling below the issue price by itself doesn’t automatically mean it’s “cheap.” The key checkpoints for testing this pricing logic are the Starship test flight in the next week, and the earnings report plus unlocks one month later.