On January 1, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indexes plunged in the closing hours, with the S&P 500 index down 0.74%, the Nasdaq down 0.76%, and the Dow down 0.63%, as tech stocks all fell. As a result, Bitcoin also slightly dropped by 0.8% to $87,649, with over 150,000 people liquidated in the past 24 hours, bringing the total annual decline to 6.18%.
Correlation data shows that the current correlation of Bitcoin #BTC with the Nasdaq index is as high as 0.74, and the correlation with the S&P 500 index is about 42%, highlighting the risk asset nature and completely disproving its safe-haven attribute. Institutional movements are showing divergence, with Goldman Sachs increasing its holdings in Bitcoin ETF to 88.56% in the fourth quarter, BlackRock increasing its position in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) by 18.83%, but cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net outflow of $8.6 billion on that day, with long-term holders selling 800,000 Bitcoins, reaching a new high for the phase.
Investment in blockchain by the capital market is becoming clear, with L1/L2 public chain financing cooling down, while the prediction market, payment, and RWA track are becoming the focus. Polymarket and Kalshi together raised over $3.15 billion, and the RWA on-chain asset scale reached $36 billion. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is cooling (the probability of a rate cut in January is only 16.1%), combined with the volatility of the U.S. stock market, which will continue to suppress Bitcoin's movement in the short term, while structural opportunities at the blockchain application layer may become a safe haven for capital.
$BTC
Correlation data shows that the current correlation of Bitcoin #BTC with the Nasdaq index is as high as 0.74, and the correlation with the S&P 500 index is about 42%, highlighting the risk asset nature and completely disproving its safe-haven attribute. Institutional movements are showing divergence, with Goldman Sachs increasing its holdings in Bitcoin ETF to 88.56% in the fourth quarter, BlackRock increasing its position in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) by 18.83%, but cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net outflow of $8.6 billion on that day, with long-term holders selling 800,000 Bitcoins, reaching a new high for the phase.
Investment in blockchain by the capital market is becoming clear, with L1/L2 public chain financing cooling down, while the prediction market, payment, and RWA track are becoming the focus. Polymarket and Kalshi together raised over $3.15 billion, and the RWA on-chain asset scale reached $36 billion. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is cooling (the probability of a rate cut in January is only 16.1%), combined with the volatility of the U.S. stock market, which will continue to suppress Bitcoin's movement in the short term, while structural opportunities at the blockchain application layer may become a safe haven for capital.
$BTC
