Yesterday US June CPI cooled sharply (a core positive in the evening). Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month and rose 3.5% year-on-year. Core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, below market expectations across the board. The market significantly cut the probability of a Fed rate hike in July; US Treasury yields dropped rapidly, and risk assets broadly rebounded. Bitcoin surged more than 4% overnight, reclaiming the 64,000 level—this was the key driver behind this round of rebound. Then, with increased volume, it pushed toward a test of 65,000 before the pressure level that I’ve been watching. Current trading approach:
As indicators are now in an overbought state, gains are being constrained. It will be difficult for price to break through the strong resistance around 65,300 in one go. We should expect repeated attempts. If price compresses and holds (a “收针”) and you can take some long profits, and if it still fails to break upward, the market will likely continue to chop in a range. Therefore, the main trading plan for today is: after a 收针, take a short position; and on a pullback toward 64,000, open a low-size long position. Targets: the 65,300 resistance area, take profit in batches.
As indicators are now in an overbought state, gains are being constrained. It will be difficult for price to break through the strong resistance around 65,300 in one go. We should expect repeated attempts. If price compresses and holds (a “收针”) and you can take some long profits, and if it still fails to break upward, the market will likely continue to chop in a range. Therefore, the main trading plan for today is: after a 收针, take a short position; and on a pullback toward 64,000, open a low-size long position. Targets: the 65,300 resistance area, take profit in batches.
