The current market is still running within my expectations. Yesterday morning I suggested there would be a decent pullback, and the chart has already confirmed it. Around 64,000, Bitcoin ➡️➡️➡️ fell to a low of 61,800.
Tonight, a key variable is here—the June CPI data is about to be released, and the suspense is especially high.
First, a bit of background: In June, the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire understanding memorandum, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, and the market generally expects inflation to cool significantly.
But recently, the situation in the Middle East has changed again. The U.S. has launched large-scale strikes against Iran for multiple days in a row, and geopolitical risk is heating up once more. Uncertainty in the energy supply chain has resurfaced.
This makes tonight’s CPI data even more complicated: after all, with a new development in play, how will the market price this “old” data?
Here’s my take: At this stage, my thinking is still tilted toward going short. The expectation of “cooling inflation” may already have been partly priced in early in the month. Back then, with support from strong Non-Farm Payrolls data, the market rallied nicely. At the start of the month, I also followed this logic and bought from around 58,000 all the way up to 63,000, capturing a round of upside.
So I think that even if tonight’s data meets expectations or is better than expected for crypto, the bounce won’t be particularly strong—because the short-term tailwind has already played out.
However, if the data comes in higher than expected and is bearish for crypto, and it’s compounded by geopolitical risk, the market may very well see a major dump.
No matter what happens with the data tonight, I believe the medium-term outcome could be the same—that is, a decline.
The above is only my personal opinion. CPI can be volatile, so please view it rationally. #美国宣布将对伊朗实施海上封锁
Tonight, a key variable is here—the June CPI data is about to be released, and the suspense is especially high.
First, a bit of background: In June, the U.S. and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire understanding memorandum, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, and the market generally expects inflation to cool significantly.
But recently, the situation in the Middle East has changed again. The U.S. has launched large-scale strikes against Iran for multiple days in a row, and geopolitical risk is heating up once more. Uncertainty in the energy supply chain has resurfaced.
This makes tonight’s CPI data even more complicated: after all, with a new development in play, how will the market price this “old” data?
Here’s my take: At this stage, my thinking is still tilted toward going short. The expectation of “cooling inflation” may already have been partly priced in early in the month. Back then, with support from strong Non-Farm Payrolls data, the market rallied nicely. At the start of the month, I also followed this logic and bought from around 58,000 all the way up to 63,000, capturing a round of upside.
So I think that even if tonight’s data meets expectations or is better than expected for crypto, the bounce won’t be particularly strong—because the short-term tailwind has already played out.
However, if the data comes in higher than expected and is bearish for crypto, and it’s compounded by geopolitical risk, the market may very well see a major dump.
No matter what happens with the data tonight, I believe the medium-term outcome could be the same—that is, a decline.
The above is only my personal opinion. CPI can be volatile, so please view it rationally. #美国宣布将对伊朗实施海上封锁