Ethereum will end the year 2025 around $2,970 after a tumultuous quarter. The market is currently divided; some analysts expect the beginning of the next bull cycle, while others assert that the situation remains uncertain or mixed.
The truth, as often, is probably somewhere between these two positions. The ETH chart suggests pressure, the historical seasonality is fragile, and on-chain flows indicate early support but without real conviction.
The setup approaching 2026 is unclear. The question is simple: Is Ethereum preparing for a rebound or a new phase of decline?
Bearish structure and historical volatility
On the 3-day unit chart, ETH is moving in an ascending channel that resembles a bearish flag. A break below this structure would activate the projected movement. Thus, if confirmed, the technical projection implies a decline of about 44% from the breakout levels.
Note: The risk of a bearish breakout decreases significantly if Ethereum continues to operate within the channel for some time.
Seasonality, however, complicates the situation. January has historically been favorable to Ethereum, with a long-term average of about +33%, but last January was not exceptional. Indeed, January 2025 started with a drop, followed by four consecutive months in the red. Thus, if the bearish flag breaks, the seasonal momentum that often opens the new year could again be lacking.
The bearish risk, combined with a historically volatile period, does not align with expert forecasts that predict an Ethereum price between $7,000 and $9,000 in 2026. At least, not for now.
This weakness aligns with the views of Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, interviewed by BeInCrypto on the $9,000 forecast for ETH in 2026:
"Capital needs to stop leaving Ethereum, real usage must go beyond the current pilot projects, and the supply must remain locked for longer periods," he specifies.
He adds that the current environment does not yet allow for expecting a bullish breakout:
"We consider the current situation to be mixed," he added.
The chart indicates a risk, seasonality shows its uncertainty, and the analysis points towards a slow, conditional rebound dependent on external factors. Improvements may be perceptible on-chain, but they remain timid.
On-chain flows show hope but not yet conviction
Some on-chain data contradicts a total breakout scenario.
Long-term holders have finally become buyers again. The Hodler Net Position Change indicator (which measures flows to long-term investor wallets) turned positive again on December 26 for the first time since July and has remained positive for several days. This indicates that patient capital is positioning itself at current levels, but with a degree of caution.
As the staking queue on Ethereum exceeds that of withdrawals, it is possible that purchases by hodlers remain ultimately blocked. This is, by the way, one of the prerequisites mentioned by Ryan Lee for a more pronounced appreciation of the ETH price.
Ryan also provides further clarifications:
"More than 740,000 ETH are waiting to enter staking, while about half of that amount is pending withdrawal. Nearly 30% of the total ETH supply is already staked," he emphasizes.
This suggests an accumulation phase and a desire to lock the supply, but the scale is not yet sufficient to trigger a trend reversal. This behavior reflects interest, without necessarily giving a clear direction.
Whales, or crypto whales, are also back. After falling to around 100.01 million ETH off exchanges by the end of November, the supply rose to 101.21 million ETH on December 31. This accumulation of $3.6 billion is significant, but this figure remains below the peak of 101.90 million recorded in early November. As long as this threshold is not exceeded, whale demand supports prices without being decisive.
ETF flows remain the main flaw in the bullish argument. Spot ETFs on ETH recorded about $1.97 billion in outflows, with a negative balance in both November and December.
Ryan is direct here and considers that this lack related to ETFs is an extremely restrictive element for price movements:
"Currently, large capital is leaving the ecosystem. This limits the price potential."
The on-chain analysis thus shows an improvement without real conviction. It would be more of an early construction of a low point than a real trend reversal.
What roadmap for 2026?
This is where Ryan's chart and analysis framework converge.
Indeed, ETH must remain above $2,760 to preserve the flag structure. Losing this level would weaken the structure and expose the thresholds of $2,650 and $2,400. A deeper drop towards $2,140 and $1,780 would confirm the bearish breakout. If the bear flag unfolds completely, the figure anticipates a drop towards $1,320, which corresponds to a 44% calculation from the breakout point.
To regain a bullish dynamic, the price would need to break through $3,470 in order to test the upper boundary. A move above $3,670 would reverse the trend. However, the real bullish breakout will only occur when ETH regains $4,770; this is the starting point of the flagpole and the threshold that would reignite the trend.
Only above this zone do targets like $7,000 to $9,000 become structurally coherent; and even at this stage, Ryan believes the movement remains conditional:
"That’s why our base scenario remains one of slow and conditional recovery. The price may rise, but it is more likely to do so gradually," he states.
He also indicates who will lead the dance if easing of macroeconomic policy (expectations of rate cuts) improves liquidity.
"Bitcoin will likely react first. Ethereum will follow closely, as soon as staking becomes dominant, tokenized asset volumes increase, and ETF flows stabilize," he explains.
If liquidity improves in 2026, Bitcoin should come out on top. The price of Ethereum will only follow when ETF outflows cease, whale supply surpasses its November peak, and demand for staking becomes persistent, supported by a continuous flow of new hodlers.
As long as these conditions are not met, the trend will remain neutral to bearish.