Script Crossroads: BTC’s “Two-Pronged Preparation” at the Bear Market Bottom and the Ultimate Ambush
In the macro cycle of the crypto market, the most fascinating part is that “history won’t simply repeat, but it always follows the same rhyme.” As discussions about the “second half of the bear market” have recently heated up, and after combining technical analysis, price-volume relationships, and on-chain indicators, we find that the market’s next “script” has become increasingly clear.
As we previously judged the market’s rhythm, in bull and bear markets, 80% of the time is the torturous, boring range-bound chop, and what often decides the outcome is merely those 20% key windows. At the current crossroads of the cycle, the fourth leg of decline (the main force’s final strike) may be building up. Based on the fading of momentum and on-chain resonance, the BTC bear market bottom is very likely to evolve into one of the following two scenarios.
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Scenario one: Optimistic conditions—momentum decay; CVDD builds an “iron foundation”
Key range: $48,000 - 50,000
Price action illustration: Looking back at the first three major sell-off waves in this bear market, their drawdowns were 36%, 39%, and 30% respectively, showing a clear volume-and-price pattern of “one push, then weakens.” During the third wave of decline, trading volume shrank significantly compared with the second wave, which means the shorts’ active selling momentum is fading. In the optimistic scenario, the fourth wave decline will continue this kind of “low-volume, slow bleed” or “exhaustion-style” dip. When price reaches the midline of the falling channel, longs will gain their most solid macro ally—CVDD (Destroyed Coin Market Cap) indicator. As an on-chain “killing weapon” that has repeatedly achieved perfectly accurate bottom-picking, the CVDD support line currently overlaps deeply with the 48k–50k range. In this spot, the channel midline and the on-chain iron bottom form a strong multi-dimensional resonance at the same level.
Market performance: In this range, price may behave like “a pin and then back” or trade sideways while forming a base with long lower wicks. The main players will carry out the final low-volume shakeout here; retail investors, driven by fear, cut losses, and the chips complete their last rotation.
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Scenario two: Pessimistic conditions—panic selling to the lower edge of the channel
Key range: $37,000 - 40,000
Price action illustration: Trading can’t be wishful thinking—you must defend against extreme black swans or liquidity crises. If the fourth wave decline comes with a macro “blow-up” (such as the Fed delivering policy surprises or abrupt geopolitical changes), the market may enter a pessimistic scenario with a breakdown on increased volume. Once the 48k level fails to hold, panic and long-leveraged positions will be mercilessly liquidated in a chain reaction. At that moment, downside momentum will break the decay trend and trigger a short-term explosive purge. Price will directly plunge to the lower edge of this down channel—that is, the 37k–40k range.
Market performance: This will be an extremely brutal “high-volume crash,” and it may even come with the MVRV indicator dropping into an absolute undervaluation zone and the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator fully closing. Market sentiment will sink to an extreme freezing point and despair. But remember: this is often the ultimate left-side golden buy point of “rebirth out of despair.”
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The trader’s ultimate strategy: How to set it up?
Once we see clearly these two scenarios, we upgrade from the retail mindset of “blindly guessing the bottom” to the hunter mindset of “going after the bottom.” When facing the impact of the next fourth wave, the best response isn’t to bet on which probability is higher, but to use the timing of derivatives and spot trading to defend and attack in batches:
Left-side strategic accumulation (48k–50k): Given that the objective fact with the highest current probability is momentum/volume decay, when price first touches this range and does so alongside CVDD on-chain support, it becomes an extremely ideal first batch of strategic entries. By using deep out-of-the-money far-dated options (Ultra-Long-Term Call Options), you can effectively hedge against time decay, betting on the subsequent bull-market main surge with extremely low time cost.
Reserve enough ammunition and strictly guard against the extremes (37,000-40,000): Always keep a portion of available spot ammunition or a “safety cushion.” If the market follows scenario two, the lower edge of the channel is where we blindly fire off all our ammunition—completing the ultimate covert positioning at the “golden pit.”
In crypto, one day is like a year in the human world. Darkness will eventually pass. The willpower that the main players wear down with 80% boredom and panic will ultimately be repaid to those who endure—principal plus interest—during the final 20% explosive surge. Once you understand the boundary of the bottom, the upcoming fluctuations are nothing more than the prelude to the next major uptrend.