Contract Quant Brief #109｜The continuation is still here, but it’s more suitable to wait for a pullback to confirm
Market Status
This round still leans toward continuation. The strong performance hasn’t immediately turned bad, and the funding rate hasn’t reached an out-of-control zone. My feeling isn’t “there’s no opportunity,” but rather “the opportunity is still there—just don’t chase the very last leg.”
Top Picks
1) JCTUSDT
This one looks more like an asset that moves in line with the trend. The upside move has already happened, but the funding rate remains relatively restrained, and OI is rising too—suggesting the longs aren’t just impulsively charging in and then dispersing.
Observation level: Around 0.00424, i.e., near the 20 MA.
Trigger condition: After a pullback holds, reclaim above 0.00434, then watch for a second push higher.
Invalidation condition: If it falls below 0.00420 and can’t reclaim it, then treat the setup as a “false strength” for now.
2) 1000XECUSDT
This one is more volatile. In the past 6 hours it has already run very fast; OI surged over the last hour, indicating that capital really is chasing. Still, I’ll be more cautious—because when it runs that fast, it’s also easier for it to whip (wash out) afterward.
Observation level: Around 0.00644—first see whether the 20 MA can hold.
Trigger condition: Only consider following after a pullback that doesn’t break and then a breakout with volume above the previous high.
Invalidation condition: If it drops back below the 20 MA and the subsequent bounce lacks strength, don’t force an entry.
Alternative Watch / Not Chasing Yet
ZBTUSDT is also in a strong zone, but it’s pulled farther away from the moving average. Today I’ll keep it on the watchlist and not treat it as a formal chase order.
Risk Warning
This is a market leaning toward trend continuation, not a low-level dip-buying trap. If you accelerate without timing, the missed-entry cost will be high. But once a pullback fails and support is lost, weakness can turn quickly—so I’ll wait for confirmation first before deciding whether to act.
Market Status
This round still leans toward continuation. The strong performance hasn’t immediately turned bad, and the funding rate hasn’t reached an out-of-control zone. My feeling isn’t “there’s no opportunity,” but rather “the opportunity is still there—just don’t chase the very last leg.”
Top Picks
1) JCTUSDT
This one looks more like an asset that moves in line with the trend. The upside move has already happened, but the funding rate remains relatively restrained, and OI is rising too—suggesting the longs aren’t just impulsively charging in and then dispersing.
Observation level: Around 0.00424, i.e., near the 20 MA.
Trigger condition: After a pullback holds, reclaim above 0.00434, then watch for a second push higher.
Invalidation condition: If it falls below 0.00420 and can’t reclaim it, then treat the setup as a “false strength” for now.
2) 1000XECUSDT
This one is more volatile. In the past 6 hours it has already run very fast; OI surged over the last hour, indicating that capital really is chasing. Still, I’ll be more cautious—because when it runs that fast, it’s also easier for it to whip (wash out) afterward.
Observation level: Around 0.00644—first see whether the 20 MA can hold.
Trigger condition: Only consider following after a pullback that doesn’t break and then a breakout with volume above the previous high.
Invalidation condition: If it drops back below the 20 MA and the subsequent bounce lacks strength, don’t force an entry.
Alternative Watch / Not Chasing Yet
ZBTUSDT is also in a strong zone, but it’s pulled farther away from the moving average. Today I’ll keep it on the watchlist and not treat it as a formal chase order.
Risk Warning
This is a market leaning toward trend continuation, not a low-level dip-buying trap. If you accelerate without timing, the missed-entry cost will be high. But once a pullback fails and support is lost, weakness can turn quickly—so I’ll wait for confirmation first before deciding whether to act.