#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH Hot topics with the consultant:
The most important thing about yesterday's macro news is that the Federal Reserve has become more straightforward. Why is inflation not coming down now? Even the officials are too lazy to pretend, directly shifting the blame to tariffs.
The meaning is very clear; this is not about demand being too strong, but rather that policy costs have been forcibly pushed up, and don't expect to return to 2% in the short term; don't even think about it.
The labor market is more interesting; it claims to be lacking vitality. In plain terms, companies are starting to hesitate, beginning to save money, and are reluctant to hire. With fewer immigrants, an aging population, and not enough workers, labor supply is shrinking. This is not an improvement; it is the prelude to a hidden recession.
Stop letting people blow up the stability and strength of the old country's economy every day. If it were that stable, would the Federal Reserve be watching the data every day without daring to act? This logic is currently just a sign of uncertainty; just hanging on, every day is a day postponed.
As for interest rate cuts? Don't expect anything in January. The vast majority of Americans agree that there will be no movement, just looking at the data. Now, whoever moves first will take the blame. If adjustments are to be made, it will be at the earliest in March, provided that inflation is willing to cooperate. Otherwise, it’s just going to continue to drag on, suffocating the market and the emotions.
Returning to the market, I believe everyone has a sense of what the current situation is. The doors have been drawn to the point where retail investors' souls are almost gone; smiling in the morning and suffering in the afternoon, and the US market in the evening has to continue.
Watching the market until midnight, my eyes are red, my emotions are exhausted, and the results are hard to express. The liquidity is poor, not to mention that most retail investors have run away. So if the market doesn't bring out some excitement soon, it will really be finished.
The key nodes in the market never follow the path of man. The big coin was crazily testing support last week, and these days it's gone to touch the pressure of MA30 at 89K. A monthly line will be drawn soon, and the big coin has already closed in the red for three consecutive months. If you still say this is a bull market, nobody would believe it.
If you ask me, this is the start of a bear market, but not a deep bear. Even if liquidity is poor, it won't be completely dried up, so the probability of a positive closing in January is actually not low. This is also why I say that it will repeatedly hit the position of 89K in the near future.
I'm too lazy to count how many times this support at 86.5K has been defended. The price has been grinding sideways between 86.5K and 90K for 11 days, and now it's just a dead zone where it doesn't go up or down. Subjectively speaking, the fact that it hasn’t been able to go up to 90K for so long essentially indicates weakness.
The first method is to continue moving horizontally to annoy everyone, then directly break through 86.5K and go look for 83.7K. The second method is if you really want to force a breakthrough at 90K, then the shorts at night will have to accept defeat, and after going up, there will be a chance to see 94K.
Then there is Ethereum, which has only had three months of positive monthly returns over the past year. The remaining nine months have all been negative, and the trend is similar to the bear market of 2018. Short-term support is at 2835 and 2715, with resistance at 3400 and 3719. Just keep an eye on the lower track of 2900-2915 today.
As long as it can still take small steps upwards, it is very likely that it won't step on that price again. However, during this wave, it dropped from 3447 to 2766 without breaking the triple bottom, so a short-term pullback to 3180 is expected, provided that it does not act up again. I will be waiting for everyone in 2026.
The master looks at the trend:
Bitcoin has formed a W bottom on the 15-minute level, and after breaking the neck line, it has pulled back. Currently, the area around 87.8K is holding up, so it can be considered a short-term support level for now.
On the hourly level, pay attention to the short-term trend of the 20MA, as well as the support situation of 87.8K, 120MA, and 200MA below. The previous high of 88.8 to 89K is a very obvious strong resistance area and also a psychological barrier.
Currently, the probability of the price being pushed back in the range of 88.8 to 89K is relatively high. As long as the support below does not break, there is still a possibility of repeated testing of the upward pressure. The RSI around 55 has started to turn down, indicating that a short-term pullback is still expected.
The second support range of 87.3K to 88K is the position where there was repeated consolidation before the rapid rise, and it is an important support transaction density area. If the price falls below and then returns to the downward trend channel, the probability of continuing to weaken afterward will significantly increase.
Before truly stabilizing at 89K, it is very likely to continue to fluctuate in a boxy manner. Although a short-term surge looks good, in the medium to long term, the chips below have not been solidified, making it easy for the price to pull back and then retract after a rise. Pay attention to the market's back and forth.
12.31 The master’s segment is pre-set:
Long entry reference: Long in the range of 87300-87800, target: 88800-89400
Short entry reference: not for reference at the moment
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep following, not just watch a few market movements and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today it’s screenshots of long positions, tomorrow it’s summaries of short positions. It seems like they are 'catching tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it’s all after the fact. A truly worth-watching blogger must have consistent and coherent trading logic that can withstand scrutiny, not just jump in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and fragmented screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are required to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!