My current understanding of this big-bun (W-shaped) structure is:
At around 59,000: panic selling
The market concentrates and releases supply, and you begin to see clear absorption.
At around 84,000: an automatic rebound
After the panic sell pressure temporarily fades, the price naturally repairs upward.
At around 57,800: a second test
It returns to the bottom area again to test whether the earlier supply has already been consumed.
Now that BTC is back around 63,000, I believe it most likely is still in the accumulation (absorbing) phase after the second test.
Next, the most critical part is to see whether the market can move into a漂亮的 SOS (a strong signal):
Break above the overhead supply area on increased volume,
During the pullback, volume should shrink and it should hold the support,
Then continue moving upward.
If it plays out, that would be more like accumulation gradually completing, with the early bull market beginning to take shape.
If it doesn’t play out, that means the supply hasn’t been fully cleared, and the market may need to continue ranging and testing.
Before, people only used to ask: up or down?
Now the questions are:
Has the supply been exhausted? Has demand taken over? Has the structure been confirmed?
Of course, these are only my current stage-by-stage judgments based on the Wyckoff structure—this is not me stamping the market in advance.
Look at the clues from the left side, wait for evidence on the right.
I’ll submit a round of this current understanding as homework for now.
At around 59,000: panic selling
The market concentrates and releases supply, and you begin to see clear absorption.
At around 84,000: an automatic rebound
After the panic sell pressure temporarily fades, the price naturally repairs upward.
At around 57,800: a second test
It returns to the bottom area again to test whether the earlier supply has already been consumed.
Now that BTC is back around 63,000, I believe it most likely is still in the accumulation (absorbing) phase after the second test.
Next, the most critical part is to see whether the market can move into a漂亮的 SOS (a strong signal):
Break above the overhead supply area on increased volume,
During the pullback, volume should shrink and it should hold the support,
Then continue moving upward.
If it plays out, that would be more like accumulation gradually completing, with the early bull market beginning to take shape.
If it doesn’t play out, that means the supply hasn’t been fully cleared, and the market may need to continue ranging and testing.
Before, people only used to ask: up or down?
Now the questions are:
Has the supply been exhausted? Has demand taken over? Has the structure been confirmed?
Of course, these are only my current stage-by-stage judgments based on the Wyckoff structure—this is not me stamping the market in advance.
Look at the clues from the left side, wait for evidence on the right.
I’ll submit a round of this current understanding as homework for now.